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Old 12-04-2012, 07:39 PM   #3441
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Originally Posted by Scrappy Jack View Post
I wonder if Edwin received a similar note from his parents and grandparents after they left such a crushing level of national debt and deficits in the 1940s or Cord got a letter like that after Reagan and Bush 41 in the '80s and early '90s.
I won't even get into the NPR idea--laughable. However, can you tell me Scrappy--you McCain voter you--what the deficit and debt to GDP ratio was after Reagan, Bush 41, et al? I won't even get into the points about the House being controlled by Democrats during this time; we'll let that slide. Oh, and let's see what the rate of non-discretionary funding was at this time as well.
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Old 12-04-2012, 07:48 PM   #3442
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Default How to scare the Bear when they're sailing nukes to Cuba

This is an email from my dad below. Long story short--did you know we shot off over 20 nukes into the atmosphere and in space during the Cuban Missile Crisis?! We did it in order to scare the Soviets into realizing we meant business...

Hi;

I was doing an Internet search on a Nuclear Test Project conducted in 1962 On Johnston Island 500 miles
South west of Hawaii that I worked on.

My role, in this project, was Head of the Programming team for Sperry Univac. We were charged with the design, development and testing of the computer system for missile launch Range Safety. The system provided the “Go – NoGo” indicator for the missile launch Director of high altitude Nuclear
War heads above the atmosphere. The Director had to know if the missile was on target before setting off the nuclear device. Some war-heads went off as low as 29 miles straight up and one exploded at 367 miles high.
That one was very interesting. After about five minutes all of the debris caused by the explosion seemed to collect along the magnetic lines of flux surrounding our planet. The 29 mile bomb lit up the entire area from horizon to horizon like 1200 noon. The launch was at 1200 midnight. It was also visible in Hawaii.

As I may have mentioned to you, we later found that these tests were being conducted to “scare” off the Russians
during the 1962 Cuban Missile crisis.

Today (11/30/12) is the FIRST time I’ve ever seen the complete description of what “Operation Dominic” was all
about since it has been classified TOP SECRET.


Internet Archive Search: creator:"Joint Task Force 8"


Internet Archive Search: creator:"Joint Task Force 8"
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Old 12-04-2012, 08:16 PM   #3443
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Default zombie apocalypse

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Originally Posted by Braineack View Post
But gun control will prevent crimes.
Just the other day I was at the firing range when a Zombie appeared in the lane next to me. Doesn't Bob Costas know they'll be sucking out his brain like a Slurpee if he's not armed?
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Old 12-05-2012, 11:25 AM   #3444
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However, can you tell me Scrappy--you McCain voter you--what the deficit and debt to GDP ratio was after Reagan, Bush 41, et al?

Sure.

GS = Government Sector balance of payments (aka "Federal deficit or surplus") as a percentage of Real GDP

FS = Foreign Sector balance of payments (aka "trade deficit or surplus") as a percentage of Real GDP

PS = Private Sector balance of payments (households and corporations) as a percentage of Real GDP

Code:
President  GS Start   Finish  FS Start  Finish   PS Start   Finish
Reagan     -1.08%     -2.34%  +0.03%    -1.55%    +1.11%    +0.79%
GHWB       -1.97%     -4.29%  -1.37%    -0.82%    +0.60%    +3.47%
Clinton    -4.52%     +1.07%  -0.70%    -3.85%    +3.82%    -4.92%
GWB        +0.84%     -9.39%  -3.75%    -4.70%    -4.59%    +4.69%
Obama     -11.87%     -9.27%  -3.01%    -4.19%    +8.86%    +5.08%
Obama's finish is as of 2012Q1 (most recent data I have calculated)
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Old 12-05-2012, 11:47 AM   #3445
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As for interpretation of the data:

You will notice that Reagan left a larger Federal budget deficit than he started, as well as a trade deficit where he had a surplus and a lower private sector surplus.

GHWB left a larger left a larger Federal budget deficit than he started, but a reduced trade deficit and an increased private sector surplus.

Clinton left a Federal budget surplus and increased trade deficit as well as the first private sector deficit in the data set (which only goes back to 1971).

GWB left a large Federal budget deficit after starting with a small surplus, an increased trade deficit but a private sector surplus where there was a deficit.

Obama most recently had a smaller Federal budget deficit than he started with, a larger trade deficit and a reduced private sector surplus.



I might make the argument that Clinton's data set looks the worst.
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Old 12-05-2012, 11:55 AM   #3446
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If only Obama could pass his budget he wouldn't look so good on paper.

Semi related:

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A $7.1 billion Homeland Security Department program to make cities safer from terrorism has paid for 13 sno-cone machines in Michigan, a $98,000 underwater robot in Columbus, Ohio, an armored vehicle for a tiny Maine town that uses it to patrol the annual pumpkin festival, and humorous videos that offered little valuable information for fighting real threats, according to an investigation by Sen. Tom Coburn.

...

in Cook County, Ill., where $45 million was spent on a camera surveillance system codenamed "Project Shield" that failed because it was not built to withstand Chicago's harsh weather.
I recall reading something that said the COB projected that if taxes were only raised on those making above 1 million instead of those making above 250K, the difference would only be 10-14billion over 10 years. The number of tax payers in that range (250K-999K) is trivial to the burden.

However, this is what happens when you tax 1 million income earners just 10% more in a year (50% from 40%); you dont get more revenue.




Honestly, Obama would look horrid on paper of they'd pass his budget. He speaks of the growth during the Clinton period to back his proposed tax rates...but he fails to remember that it was during a boom cycle brought on by the internet craze, not a recession. Also the surplus we made was not used to pay down the debt; it was pointless.

Last edited by Braineack; 12-05-2012 at 12:07 PM.
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Old 12-05-2012, 01:05 PM   #3447
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intersting:

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Hollands’s capital already has a special hit squad of municipal officials to identify the worst offenders for a compulsory six month course in how to behave. Social housing problem families or tenants who do not show an improvement or refuse to go to the special units face eviction and homelessness. Eberhard van der Laan, Amsterdam’s Labour mayor, has tabled the £810,000 plan to tackle 13,000 complaints of anti-social behaviour every year. He complained that long-term harassment often leads to law abiding tenants, rather than their nuisance neighbours, being driven out. “This is the world turned upside down,” the mayor said at the weekend. …The new punishment housing camps have been dubbed “scum villages” because the plan echoes a proposal from Geert Wilders, the leader of a populist Dutch Right-wing party, for special units to deal with persistent troublemakers. “Repeat offenders should be forcibly removed from their neighbourhood and sent to a village for scum,” he suggested last year. “Put all the trash together.” …The tough approach taken by Mr van der Laan appears to jar with Amsterdam’s famous tolerance for prostitution and soft drugs but reflects hardening attitudes to routine anti-social behaviour that falls short of criminality. There are already several small-scale trial projects in the Netherlands, including in Amsterdam, where 10 shipping container homes have been set aside for persistent offenders, living under 24-hour supervision from social workers and police.

If you're not a happy resident of gov't housing, you go to room 101.
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Old 12-05-2012, 01:11 PM   #3448
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bakc on topic, words like Scrappy will read:

Quote:
…it’s a fight that has important implications, particularly since some of the tax increases will have a significantly harmful impact on incentives to work, save, invest and create jobs. In a competitive global economy, for instance, it is bizarrely self-destructive to increase the double taxation of dividends and capital gains. …This is all bad news, but it is not a crisis. If we go over the cliff, it simply means the economy will grow a bit slower and politicians will spend a bit more money. And the sequester actually would be (modest) good news, since it means the burden of government spending would be “only” $2 trillion higher 10 years from now, rather than $2.1 trillion higher. And even if Obama prevails in the fight, that simply means that we get a different mix of tax hikes and spending rises at a faster rate. Sure, that’s bad for the economy, but it’s not the end of the world. The real crisis is the ticking time bomb of entitlement programs and the welfare state. This bomb won’t explode this year or next year. It may not even explode for another 20 years. But at some point America will experience a Greek-style fiscal collapse if these programs are not reformed.

...

A lot of people get upset about the national debt, which is somewhere between $11 trillion and $16 trillion, depending on whether you include money the government owes itself. Those are big numbers — but if you add up the amount of money that the government is promising to spend for entitlement programs in the future and compare that figure to the amount of revenue that the government projects it will collect for those programs, the cumulative shortfall is more than $100 trillion. And that’s after adjusting for inflation. Some politicians claim this huge, baked-into-the-cake expansion of government isn’t a problem, because we can raise taxes. But that’s exactly what Europe’s welfare states tried — and it didn’t work. Simply stated, even huge tax hikes won’t stem the flow of red ink in the long run if government keeps growing faster than the private economy. This is the fiscal problem that demands attention. Absent real entitlement reform, such as block-granting Medicaid to the states, the burden of government spending will consume ever-larger shares of our economic output with each passing year.
What this author failed to remember is that our money isnt real! right?
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Old 12-05-2012, 02:50 PM   #3449
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However, this is what happens when you tax 1 million income earners just 10% more in a year (50% from 40%); you dont get more revenue.
Exactly. You raise taxes and cut spending during a slow growth time period in an effort to "balance the budget" (which everyone knows is a good thing, even if they can't explain why) and you tip your economy back in to recession. That reduces your tax receipts and increases your spending if you have automatic stabilizers like unemployment insurance and welfare programs.

Quote:
He speaks of the growth during the Clinton period to back his proposed tax rates...but he fails to remember that it was during a boom cycle brought on by the internet craze, not a recession.
Yep. In 1992, real GDP growth was high 3s - low 4s. It dropped to mid to high 2s in 1993.

2011 was high 1s - low 2s and 2012 has been low to mid 2s.

Quote:
Also the surplus we made was not used to pay down the debt; it was pointless.
I would argue it was worse than pointless. With a trade deficit, either the government or the private sector can be net savers. Since the government was net saving, the private sector was net spending - running a private sector deficit.

Quote:
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What this author failed to remember is that our money isnt real! right?
The money is as real as any other money. What the author failed to understand are two things:

1) The monetary system in the USA is very different from the system in Greece. He would have no way of logically explaining a realistic scenario in which the USA faces a "Greek-style fiscal collapse."

It would be like me warning of fouling the glow plug in your Miata.

2) RE: "The real crisis is the ticking time bomb of entitlement programs and the welfare state. This bomb won’t explode this year or next year. It may not even explode for another 20 years."

Since you were kind enough to provide me text, I'll provide you an image from a few posts up:



The bold column is the year the Social Security trustees created their report of the system's health. The next column is the year that report said they expect the system to be "bankrupt" or insolvent.

Notice a pattern? If you'd like, I can follow up with a nice string of quotes from newspapers going back to the 1960s or 1970s with people crying apocalyptic warnings about the "ticking time bomb" that is the bankruptcy of Social Security. I'm pretty sure there was a Republican Presidential nominee from the 1940s also making similar claims.


You will notice that these people do not have their jobs or income tied to the accuracy of these predictions.
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Old 12-05-2012, 02:57 PM   #3450
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I saw that pic, and when I read that column it screamed, "I need to show this to Scrappy," for various points you touched on
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Old 12-05-2012, 04:58 PM   #3451
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I saw that pic, and when I read that column it screamed, "I need to show this to Scrappy," for various points you touched on
That's your boy Dan Mitchell, huh?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel J. Mitchell in the New York Post
Unfortunately, the longer we wait to fix the problem, the harder it will be to solve. More and more Americans will become trapped into lives of government dependency over time, the private economy will be too suffocated by taxes to create jobs, and we could wind up like Greece — with the majority of the voting-age population determined to support the status quo.

But when the status quo is unsustainable, the “bond vigilantes” will be the ones in charge. And when they cut up Washington’s credit card, it won’t be a pretty situation — especially since there won’t be anybody left to bail us out.

It's a good thing Dan gets paid to write articles and make online videos and appear on CNBC and TV... Because if his livelihood depended on making money in the markets based on his understanding of economics and the monetary system, he'd be broke or unemployed.


Unless he had doubled down on gold and ammo 5 years ago.
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Old 12-06-2012, 02:14 PM   #3452
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It's a good thing Dan gets paid to write articles and make online videos and appear on CNBC and TV... Because if his livelihood depended on making money in the markets based on his understanding of economics and the monetary system, he'd be broke or unemployed.


Unless he had doubled down on gold and ammo 5 years ago.
I saw this quote and thought it was relevant to what I was trying to say above.

“In cable news, debate means two opposing ideologues get equal time to spout bullshit. In trading, opposing views means someone is actually going to be right and someone is actually going to be wrong. Seek out debate and use it to clarify or disprove your thesis. Find people who will challenge your opinions and listen carefully to their arguments. Don’t be afraid to change your mind.”
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Old 12-06-2012, 02:53 PM   #3453
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Are the Federal Reserve and other central banks printing money to solve this crisis?

I printed this article a few weeks ago and forgot to read it (head was smashed in and all). Read it it yesterday and learned a lot. Very, very clear analysis of QE. I was going to quote the article here but there's so many block quotes, links, and other bits of formatting that it's easier just to click through and read it on that site.
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Old 12-06-2012, 02:59 PM   #3454
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Old 12-06-2012, 03:45 PM   #3455
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Are the Federal Reserve and other central banks printing money to solve this crisis?

I printed this article a few weeks ago and forgot to read it (head was smashed in and all). Read it it yesterday and learned a lot. Very, very clear analysis of QE. I was going to quote the article here but there's so many block quotes, links, and other bits of formatting that it's easier just to click through and read it on that site.
I'll try to come back and spend some time on this, but in general, Edward Harrison is a guy I can respect because of his broad understanding and synthesis of approaches. I think he would say he originally came from an Austrian background and maintains a similar perspective but he incorporates a modern money understanding.

He also clearly separates his understanding from his advocacy, unlike guys such as Schiff that either misunderstand or do understand but disingenuously spread fear and misunderstanding for their own benefit. e.g. "The Fed is going to debase the dollar to dust and the USA will face hyperinflation! You should buy foreign stocks and gold! Good news: I sell gold and foreign stock funds..."
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:47 AM   #3456
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What the **** is wrong with people
Couple Says Officer Shot Their Puppy, Then Wrote Parking Ticket - DNAinfo.com Chicago
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Old 12-09-2012, 02:53 AM   #3457
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So, the guy parked illegally and can't control his dog.
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Old 12-09-2012, 09:53 PM   #3458
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^This.



Dog people think everyone should love and adore their dog. Well guess what? **** you, and double **** your dog. I don't like your dog, and I don't want it around me. I would have chosen to kick it, rather than shoot it, which was probably a bit much.
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Old 12-10-2012, 01:22 AM   #3459
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Am I really reading arguments for a cop shooting a puppy because an elderly man wasn't able to control him?
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Old 12-10-2012, 09:25 AM   #3460
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Cops shouldnt be writing parking tickets and/or shooting dogs.
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