Texas Economy, Environment & kitties
08-19-2011, 06:03 PM
#41
Boost Pope
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The first, of course, is that California is indeed a state of extremes. There are certain areas (mostly inland and in the extreme south) where unemployment is extremely high, and there are other regions (mostly in or near the major coastal cities) where we not only have jobs, but we have good-paying jobs in stable industries. I'd rather have 20% unemployment in the state with the economy we have now vs. 0% unemployment but everyone is working for minimum wage.
The second, of course, is that unemployment is not the number of people who don't have jobs, but the number of people who want jobs and don't have them. So all of those elderly retired folks don't count as "unemployed," even though they represent a net drain on the federal budget.
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08-20-2011, 07:24 PM
#42
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Source?
I have heard that, prior to the 2010 mid-term elections, there were 7 JDs for every one MBA in Congress (between both houses). A change in the demographics of the two houses might be a benefit. I do not have a source to cite for that fun fact, unfortunately. :(
Fixed that for ya. Compare the "white collar" professional unemployment with the "blue collar" unemployment across the country (Dakotas not withstanding?) and you are likely to see the same.
Again, reference the areas of growth I mentioned. Biotech, aerospace, engineering, healthcare... Those are not exactly the minimum wage positions.
The real problem that both Florida, California and the broader USA as a whole face is the "jobs bubble" found in the housing boom. Construction workers, day laborers, spec builders, developers, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, et al.
I have heard that, prior to the 2010 mid-term elections, there were 7 JDs for every one MBA in Congress (between both houses). A change in the demographics of the two houses might be a benefit. I do not have a source to cite for that fun fact, unfortunately. :(
Fixed that for ya. Compare the "white collar" professional unemployment with the "blue collar" unemployment across the country (Dakotas not withstanding?) and you are likely to see the same.
Again, reference the areas of growth I mentioned. Biotech, aerospace, engineering, healthcare... Those are not exactly the minimum wage positions.
The real problem that both Florida, California and the broader USA as a whole face is the "jobs bubble" found in the housing boom. Construction workers, day laborers, spec builders, developers, real estate agents, mortgage brokers, et al.
Last edited by Scrappy Jack; 08-20-2011 at 07:30 PM. Reason: Added "BOLD" to emphasize my editorializing.
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08-20-2011, 10:10 PM
#43
Boost Pope
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I'd be curious to know what percentage of the total US labor force are in industries related to or dependent upon the housing market, everything from loggers to construction workers to mortgage brokers.
Maybe 1%? 1.5%?
I've been trying to find some actual data on this, and I can't come up with anything. But just try to visualize any medium-sized city. Picture all of the people working in the hospitals, the retail stores, the restaurants, the law firms, the schools, the garages, the warehouses, the adult novelty shops, the amusement parks, the tattoo parlors, the pet stores, the office buildings, the police department, the DMV, the auto parts stores, the optometrists' offices, the broadcast stations and newspapers, the phone company, the furniture stores, the hotels, the gas stations, the hair salons, the car dealerships, and the place where you can pay $3 to have a pregnant otter lick you once directly on the surface of your left eyeball while an elderly Korean woman whispers the names of various fruit-bearing trees into you ear.
And then compare that to the total number of people cutting down trees, turning them into houses, and lending you money to buy them with.
Maybe 1%? 1.5%?
I've been trying to find some actual data on this, and I can't come up with anything. But just try to visualize any medium-sized city. Picture all of the people working in the hospitals, the retail stores, the restaurants, the law firms, the schools, the garages, the warehouses, the adult novelty shops, the amusement parks, the tattoo parlors, the pet stores, the office buildings, the police department, the DMV, the auto parts stores, the optometrists' offices, the broadcast stations and newspapers, the phone company, the furniture stores, the hotels, the gas stations, the hair salons, the car dealerships, and the place where you can pay $3 to have a pregnant otter lick you once directly on the surface of your left eyeball while an elderly Korean woman whispers the names of various fruit-bearing trees into you ear.
And then compare that to the total number of people cutting down trees, turning them into houses, and lending you money to buy them with.
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08-21-2011, 01:47 PM
#44
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For my own interest, a quick search found the following: using a five year time span (2005-2009 which is recent but probably aberrant) to compare property taxes using medians as a percentage of home value and income:
Orange County, FL (i.e. Orlando) ~ 0.9%; 3.1%
San Diego County, CA (i.e. San Diego) ~ 0.5%; 3.3%
Mercer County, NJ (i.e. Trenton) ~ 1.9%; 6.5%
Dallas County, TX (i.e. Dallas) ~ 2.1%; 4.1%
Knox County, TN (i.e. Knoxville) ~ 0.7%; 1.7%
Fairfax County, VA (i.e. Fairfax) ~ 0.8%; 3.5%
It would then be interesting to add sales tax, state income tax for median income level, etc, to get a comparison. I am sure some group has already done that.
Orange County, FL (i.e. Orlando) ~ 0.9%; 3.1%
San Diego County, CA (i.e. San Diego) ~ 0.5%; 3.3%
Mercer County, NJ (i.e. Trenton) ~ 1.9%; 6.5%
Dallas County, TX (i.e. Dallas) ~ 2.1%; 4.1%
Knox County, TN (i.e. Knoxville) ~ 0.7%; 1.7%
Fairfax County, VA (i.e. Fairfax) ~ 0.8%; 3.5%
It would then be interesting to add sales tax, state income tax for median income level, etc, to get a comparison. I am sure some group has already done that.
Anyone have those numbers?
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08-21-2011, 03:40 PM
#45
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Found some data, courtesy of the US Census: http://www.census.gov/compendia/stat...es/11s0619.pdf
In 2005, construction accounted for 11.2 million jobs, and real estate / housing-related finance accounted for 3.15 million. Total employment was 141.7 million, so that's about 10%, more than I would have expected. Of course, that's all construction, not just residential, and it includes the construction of apartments and other rental properties as well, which is one portion of the industry which actually benefits from recession (for each house that's foreclosed and empty, that's one more apartment that's rented.)
Turning forward to 2009, construction declined to 10.9 million and housing-related finance to 2.9 million, an overall decline of 3.9%. The overall labor force declined from 141.7 million to 139.9 million, a decline of about 2.3%.
So yeah, construction and housing finance took a larger hit than the general workforce, but the actual numbers are still pretty small.
In 2005, construction accounted for 11.2 million jobs, and real estate / housing-related finance accounted for 3.15 million. Total employment was 141.7 million, so that's about 10%, more than I would have expected. Of course, that's all construction, not just residential, and it includes the construction of apartments and other rental properties as well, which is one portion of the industry which actually benefits from recession (for each house that's foreclosed and empty, that's one more apartment that's rented.)
Turning forward to 2009, construction declined to 10.9 million and housing-related finance to 2.9 million, an overall decline of 3.9%. The overall labor force declined from 141.7 million to 139.9 million, a decline of about 2.3%.
So yeah, construction and housing finance took a larger hit than the general workforce, but the actual numbers are still pretty small.
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09-09-2011, 03:34 PM
#55
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And that's the end of my rant. Here's a picture of some ******* kittens:
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09-10-2011, 05:02 PM
#56
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Can you cite some specific examples of how Perry "craps" all over the great state of Texas* or gives Texas a bad name?
[Full disclosure: I have previously voted for the other Presidential candidate from Texas.]
* Note that "craps" is in quotation marks because I believe that to be figurative. There is another phrase in that same sentence which I deliberately left the quotation marks off of.
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09-13-2011, 03:06 PM
#59
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I'm pretty sure it's accurate as well.
Hardly any of his Cabinent or Czars have worked for anything but the public sector.
Read what Politifact has to say on it, however, I gotta run.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...et-members-ha/
The
Hardly any of his Cabinent or Czars have worked for anything but the public sector.
Read what Politifact has to say on it, however, I gotta run.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-me...et-members-ha/
We tracked down Cembalest to ask about his methodology. He said any effort to address the topic is heavily subjective, and he expressed regret that his work had been used for political ends, saying that it was not his intention to provide fodder for bloggers and talk show hosts.
Cembalest said that he did discount the corporate experience of the three lawyers we identified — Clinton, Vilsack and Locke — and added that he awarded nothing for Donovan, Chu or Salazar, even though we found they had a fair amount private sector experience. Cembalest acknowledged fault in missing Salazar's business background, saying he would have given him a full point if he had it to do over again. But he added that the kind of private-sector experiences Chu and Donovan had (managing scientific research and handling community development lending, respectively) did not represent the kind of private-sector business experience he was looking for when doing his study.
"What I was really trying to get at was some kind of completely, 100 percent subjective assessment of whether or not a person had had enough control of payroll, dealing with shareholders, hiring, firing and risk-taking that they'd be in a position to have had a meaningful seat at the table when the issue being discussed is job creation," Cembalest said.
Cembalest said he has "written 250,000 words in research over the last decade, and every single thing I've ever done — except this one chart — was empirically based on data from the Federal Reserve" or another official source. "This is the one time I stepped out into making judgment calls, and I assure you I won't do it again. ... The frightening thing about the Internet is that people copy one chart from what you write and then it goes viral. So I've learned a lesson here that these kinds of issues are best left addressed by the people who practice them day in and day out."
Cembalest said that he did discount the corporate experience of the three lawyers we identified — Clinton, Vilsack and Locke — and added that he awarded nothing for Donovan, Chu or Salazar, even though we found they had a fair amount private sector experience. Cembalest acknowledged fault in missing Salazar's business background, saying he would have given him a full point if he had it to do over again. But he added that the kind of private-sector experiences Chu and Donovan had (managing scientific research and handling community development lending, respectively) did not represent the kind of private-sector business experience he was looking for when doing his study.
"What I was really trying to get at was some kind of completely, 100 percent subjective assessment of whether or not a person had had enough control of payroll, dealing with shareholders, hiring, firing and risk-taking that they'd be in a position to have had a meaningful seat at the table when the issue being discussed is job creation," Cembalest said.
Cembalest said he has "written 250,000 words in research over the last decade, and every single thing I've ever done — except this one chart — was empirically based on data from the Federal Reserve" or another official source. "This is the one time I stepped out into making judgment calls, and I assure you I won't do it again. ... The frightening thing about the Internet is that people copy one chart from what you write and then it goes viral. So I've learned a lesson here that these kinds of issues are best left addressed by the people who practice them day in and day out."
Last edited by Braineack; 09-13-2011 at 03:20 PM.
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