Originally Posted by Joe Perez
(Post 1515959)
Well, I seem to be good at picking the top of a market, that's for sure. Problem is that I seem to do the wrong thing.
After '08, I told myself that the next time the market started panicking, I'd follow the herd rather than stubbornly riding the bear. I'm having a difficult time convincing myself that that is truly the best idea right now.
Originally Posted by ryansmoneypit
(Post 1515960)
pretty sure I actually lost money this year, as opposed to making 3-10% in the past 10 years
Originally Posted by sixshooter
(Post 1516028)
Exactly. That's why having a fund with 1400-ish different small cap companies in wildly diverse fields is a good, safe spread and it outperforms the S&P500.
Take a look at this diversity: https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual...folio-holdings And the performance is nice, too. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.mia...5dadd636c8.jpg https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.mia...5496d280e9.jpg |
Originally Posted by Joe Perez
(Post 1516029)
I'm puzzled by the second chart- it shows the opposite of the first one.
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Originally Posted by bahurd
(Post 1516035)
Without looking at the actual numbers, I read both charts as while the particular fund (small cap) outperformed the S&P500 benchmark over 10 yr it underperformed it over the last 5 yr.
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Originally Posted by sixshooter
(Post 1516040)
Buy and hold for me.
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Joe, if you sell now, that means you need to be able to correctly identify the real bottom (which may be yet to come . . . but might not). How good were you at identifying the peak?
At this point, you haven't lost anything, you still own the same amount of shares that you did before. If you sell now and then fail to identify the real bottom and buy higher later, then you've lost shares. Of course, you already know all this and are lying awake at night thinking about it like I am. As one data point, I bought a bunch yesterday. Valuations were such that it seemed like a good value and it also seems like there's a lot of emotion in the market from a buildup of bad news. I had previously sold last January when the valuations were looking idiotic and emotions were reversed. I spent much of 2018 in agony as no further obvious (to me) buying opportunity arose and I sat on a pile of cash feeling stupid as the market made its run from Feb to Sep. Now I don't feel quite as stupid, but I don't feel smart either. I suspect that just buying and holding would be a lot better for my mental health. It obviously pays off in the loooooonnnngggg run and can even weather things like '08. BTW, if I had perfect information, I would invest in lottery tickets instead of stocks/bonds. I just bought a new pair of running shoes and am taking lots of long runs to get high on endorphins. I recommend this. |
For fun I bought some ultrashorts on December 6. Since I'm chicken, they are only 10% of my holdings and only in one account. SDS and SIJ.
Maybe next time I buy more. |
Welp. I'm close to being flat for the year. Took out a long position on SDS that helped offset the hits a bit.
Good news is this volatility is admittedly good for business on the brokerage side. Bad news is my inbox and voicemails are a raging dumpster fire :(. if you need me, i'll be working on my Miata. |
My retirement accounts are kicking ass!
My personal investment accounts, getting crushed. Market has not been kind to me in Q4. |
Originally Posted by sometorque
(Post 1516081)
Welp. I'm close to being flat for the year. Took out a long position on SDS that helped offset the hits a bit.
Good news is this volatility is admittedly good for business on the brokerage side. Bad news is my inbox and voicemails are a raging dumpster fire :(. if you need me, i'll be working on my Miata. |
Originally Posted by hornetball
(Post 1516047)
Joe, if you sell now, that means you need to be able to correctly identify the real bottom (which may be yet to come . . . but might not). How good were you at identifying the peak?
Now down 16.7% from where I bought in. In the same timeframe, @sixshooter , VSMAX is off by around 25%, illustrating the downside to small-caps. Someone convince me not to liquidate first thing Wednesday, and convert to SDS. |
Originally Posted by Joe Perez
(Post 1516366)
This strategy is not going well.
Now down 16.7% from where I bought in. In the same timeframe, @sixshooter , VSMAX is off by around 25%, illustrating the downside to small-caps. Someone convince me not to liquidate first thing Wednesday, and convert to SDS. That’s all the convincing I can muster at the moment. Merry Christmas! |
Originally Posted by bahurd
(Post 1516432)
and so now, after losing 17% of your paper equity it’s time to win it all back by doing a trade (SDS) to double down on a market you’ve pretty much ridden all the way down?
That said, I acknowledge that it's impossible to predict the future. |
Originally Posted by Joe Perez
(Post 1516442)
I'm having trouble convincing myself that, at 17%, the market is finished panicking. The last time I clung to that belief, I wound up watching it go down all the way to a nearly 50% hit.
That said, I acknowledge that it's impossible to predict the future. There’s no question we’re headed for a recession in mid-late 2019 and reliable leading indicators point to a light one. The $1M question is does this administration have the wherewithal to stop doing things to help push it there? Do you feel lucky? |
Sorry Joe. After all the brave talk . . . I bailed.
Seems to be a bear market now. https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.mia...7d342531ea.png I don't see the influences that caused this abating in the near term (only exception being the return of institutional investors after the New Year), so I'm just going to chill for the holidays and lick my wounds. |
Yeah, I'm out. Just placed a market order, we'll see what it executes at tomorrow morning. That's another $20k gone.
Will probably buy SDS tomorrow. |
Now that the price is down it is a great time to buy, not sell.
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Originally Posted by sixshooter
(Post 1516475)
Now that the price is down it is a great time to buy, not sell.
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Originally Posted by Joe Perez
(Post 1516484)
Unless the price continues to go down considerably, as seems to be the present trend. That makes it a good time to sell, and then wait to re-buy later.
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Its sucks, but Im just going to roll through it like always.
Also, professionals are pretty bad at timing markets too. Building a market portfolio is always the answer unless you know how to cheat (like building an infrared laser computer network all over wall street). |
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