Not looking to day trade myself.
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Originally Posted by y8s
(Post 770171)
daytrade the sinewave. if the market swings up and down 1.5-2% every few days like it has been since late spring, you can make some quick money. just dont double down.
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Originally Posted by ZX-Tex
(Post 770224)
Not looking to day trade myself.
But my point was if the market is going to swing that much for so long, there's some money to be made. |
Yeah there is. I saw an article about it the other day in WSJ. The point of the article was that day-traders like volatility because they can make fast money off of the swings in both directions.
To your other point yes, that is why I do not want to get into day trading. I have enough to deal with in my life as it is. |
S&P 500 (price only index) closed 2011-06-10 at 1271.
Current low for the year was 2011-10-04 at 1075. Close yesterday 2011-10-26 was 1242. Did you ever refine your process for moving back in to non-money market style funds? |
I got lucky and pulled 9% of the S&P for the YTD in my IRA. Just happened to buy bears in late April and sell them in the first week of August to buy some GOOG and AMZN and AAPL...
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I have been watching the VIX and I think it may be about time to get back in for the long-term rally.
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Originally Posted by Scrappy Jack
(Post 788573)
S&P 500 (price only index) closed 2011-06-10 at 1271.
Current low for the year was 2011-10-04 at 1075. Close yesterday 2011-10-26 was 1242. Did you ever refine your process for moving back in to non-money market style funds?
Originally Posted by ZX-Tex
(Post 788753)
I have been watching the VIX and I think it may be about time to get back in for the long-term rally.
Again, I am not trying to say you are wrong or right. At this point, it's a really interesting bit of "behavorial finance" for me and it can serve as a sort of "investing journal" for you. By the way, if more of you are trying to be more active "market timers" it might not be a bad idea to keep a journal of what trades you made, why, and what sort of headlines or concurrent predictions were out there in the media. You could also add some thoughts on what would have to happen to make you counter your trade. |
just using the google finance portfolios to track when you might have bought is a great way to learn.
if you are thinking of buying in today, go to google, add a portfolio called "test portfolio" and add $5000 worth of DJI at about the current price and see where it is in 2 months. |
Originally Posted by ZX-Tex
(Post 758904)
This is not a great analogy, but could you imagine the U.S. (and maybe Canada) being on the same currency as Mexico, and having to bail out Mexico? Holy sh.. that would be a mess. No thanks. |
Originally Posted by falcon
(Post 790015)
If be more worried about canada having to bail the USA out. ;p... But yeah I get your analogy. Personally I hope canada the usa and mexico never do an eu type pact. fucking scary.
In Canada and the USA, we have central banks and central treasuries. The central treasuries continually transfer funds between states and provinces/territories. The EMU has a central bank but no central treasury. In the USA, you can find some data on which states pay more Federal taxes than they receive in Federal spending. Some are habitual surplus states, some habitual deficit states and some move back and forth. For example, Florida used to The differences are (A) it is an automatic, "behind the scenes" process and (B) despite our differences (for the most part), Floridians still view Californians as Americans - or Newfies still view Coasties as Canadians. The same cannot be said for the Northern and Southern Europeans, yet. |
GDP of USA: 14.5 trillion
GDP of bailout Canada: 1.3 trillion we've got a long way to fall before they bail us out. |
Originally Posted by Scrappy Jack
(Post 789140)
The S&P closed yesterday at 1285 (higher than when the first post in this thread was made) and you are feeling better about moving back in to equities versus, for instance, when we were posting on August 10th?
So I may have missed the beginning part of the rally (hindsight investing is easy) but if the relationship plays out as before there should be a good long-term rally to follow. |
Originally Posted by ZX-Tex
(Post 770028)
The VIX is starting to show a downward trend on a 10-day average but I am waiting for the VIX to get down below 25-20 before I get back in. It has stayed above 30 since the initial spike.
It seems like both need to be true (below 25 and on a 10-15 day average downward trend) for a long-term rally to take hold based on historical data.
Originally Posted by ZX-Tex
(Post 790104)
So I think the decision to get back in is less based on where the market indices are at right now, and more on where it may be headed. I am concluding it may be time to get back in based on the two VIX criteria I described earlier. One, it is on a steady downward trend based on a 15-day moving average. Two, it is finally getting to where it is back in the 20s range.
Have you gone back and looked at the results of that trade (I haven't)? For example, "sell when VIX closes > 40; buy when VIX closes < 25.00 AND below 15-day MA")? Or refined further to something (hypothetically), like "buy/sell three trading days after" the above VIX characteristics? Consider that SPY closed 2010/12/31 at 126. It closed with a YTD high of 137 on 2011/05/02 (+9%). It closed with a YTD low of 110 on 2011/10/03 (-20%). The last close was 129 on 2011/10/28 (+17%). So, despite all the wild gyrations along the way, the SPY was up about 2% for the year. Meanwhile, IEF (a 7-10 year Treasury Bond ETF) went from 94 on 2010/12/31 to 102 on 2011/10/28 (+9%). |
2011-06-10
SPY (S&P 500 proxy) = 128 GLD (gold proxy) = 149 IEF (intermediate term US govt bond proxy) = 97 2011-10-03 SPY = 110 (closing low) GLD = 161 IEF = 106 2012-04-02 SPY = 142 (closing high) GLD = 163 IEF = 103 Assuming a buy-and-hold strategy from the day of the first post through last Friday's close: 2012-07-27 SPY = 139 (+8.5% vs 2010-06-10) GLD = 158 (+6.0% vs 2010-06-10) IEF = 109 (+12.4% vs 2010-06-10) |
Using the the VIX as a reliable indicator is a pretty bad idea.
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1 Attachment(s)
Originally Posted by albumleaf
(Post 909413)
Using the the VIX as a reliable indicator is a pretty bad idea.
Can you cite some examples, some data and/or clarify which type of indicator it would be bad for and in which way the VIX was used? :party: https://www.miataturbo.net/attachmen...ine=1343660006 |
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