MarketWatch! (was: If market drops more by the end of today: GET OUT)
10-21-2008, 01:54 AM
#102
Ludwig von Mises Institute is a libertarian think tank.
And Jason, I am not an economics specialist, but I have difficulty believing in most sciences and studies which reject the scientific method in favor of anecdotes and verbal(not mathematics) based logic. Empirical data rules the modern age.
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10-21-2008, 03:13 PM
#103
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Naarleven that is the classic problem with economics, there is little scope for experimentation (change an input, observe the output). However there are some fairly fundamental truths that are self evident after some study, such as this one:
http://www.relfe.com/plus_5_.html
http://www.relfe.com/plus_5_.html
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03-02-2009, 11:10 AM
#105
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Don't shoot the messenger.
This thread was from back in October.
Today Dow is <7,000.
S&P is ~720
Nasdaq is ~1,300.
Let's see. In October GM was over $6. Today, ~$2.50.
Ford was between $1.76 and 2.59. Today, $1.56.
Hmm, Berkshire Hathaway has dropped ~40% since October.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Which academics have been saying this is gonna be a very bad recession?
The Austrian School Economists. They teach that expansion of credit always creates a bubble which leads to a crash. The central bank is the means by which credit is expanded tremendously.
Austrian Economists are not "tin foil hat" people. They are academics.
Here is an Austrian Economist who predicted this housing and stock market crash back in 2005, and he got laughed at by government economists:
YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)
Why does government still listen to economists who "didn't see this crisis coming"? They should have been discredited! Why does government look to them for advice? Why does government not believe them? Simple. They also teach that government must cut expenses, and that central banking is a ripoff. In contrast, the Keynesian economists say "government can spend as much as it wants". Why does government love central banking? Because they give government a blank check, which is effectively funded via inflation, which is a stealth tax rather than an overt tax that people notice.
Here is a fantastic new, up to date book that chronicles the steps that led to this crash, the root causes, and what we can do about it:
Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse
This thread was from back in October.
Well, how about:
So, a show of hands: Who liquidated on Friday? Personally, I'm glad I procrastinated and didn't quite get around to entering those sell orders I'd been contemplating.
So, a show of hands: Who liquidated on Friday? Personally, I'm glad I procrastinated and didn't quite get around to entering those sell orders I'd been contemplating.
S&P is ~720
Nasdaq is ~1,300.
Ford was between $1.76 and 2.59. Today, $1.56.
Warren Buffet, who I admire a hell of a lot more than Gary North, has recently put a lot of his chips back on the table which is yet another vote of confidence.
Is the market coming roaring back? Very unlikely. Will we see a protracted recession? Probably. Is the sky falling and we should sell all our stock and stockpile cash? I'd say no.
Is the market coming roaring back? Very unlikely. Will we see a protracted recession? Probably. Is the sky falling and we should sell all our stock and stockpile cash? I'd say no.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Which academics have been saying this is gonna be a very bad recession?
The Austrian School Economists. They teach that expansion of credit always creates a bubble which leads to a crash. The central bank is the means by which credit is expanded tremendously.
Austrian Economists are not "tin foil hat" people. They are academics.
Here is an Austrian Economist who predicted this housing and stock market crash back in 2005, and he got laughed at by government economists:
YouTube - Peter Schiff Was Right 2006 - 2007 (2nd Edition)
Why does government still listen to economists who "didn't see this crisis coming"? They should have been discredited! Why does government look to them for advice? Why does government not believe them? Simple. They also teach that government must cut expenses, and that central banking is a ripoff. In contrast, the Keynesian economists say "government can spend as much as it wants". Why does government love central banking? Because they give government a blank check, which is effectively funded via inflation, which is a stealth tax rather than an overt tax that people notice.
Here is a fantastic new, up to date book that chronicles the steps that led to this crash, the root causes, and what we can do about it:
Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse
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03-02-2009, 12:21 PM
#107
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I'm going to publicly humble myself for a moment and thank Jason for convincing me that the sky really is falling turning me onto a couple of ideas involving short funds. I've been jumping in and out of double-bears recently, and it's been working. On Friday afternoon I bought 670 of QID, and while it's a roller-coaster that you have to keep an eye on, as of this moment it's up 4.9%, or just over $2k.
Sometimes it pays to follow the crowd.
Still haven't taken the plunge into direct futures trading, but I'm getting set up to run a play-money portfolio (using TT_TRADER) and we'll see how that goes.
As an aside, everyone needs to take a look at their 401ks, which is something I'd totally forgotten until just recently. Your options here are usually somewhat limited, but fortunately I have access to a couple of bond funds, so I did a clean sweep into one of those. I'm not expecting radical gains, but it should at least serve as a protective shelter as things continue to go downhill.
Sometimes it pays to follow the crowd.
Still haven't taken the plunge into direct futures trading, but I'm getting set up to run a play-money portfolio (using TT_TRADER) and we'll see how that goes.
As an aside, everyone needs to take a look at their 401ks, which is something I'd totally forgotten until just recently. Your options here are usually somewhat limited, but fortunately I have access to a couple of bond funds, so I did a clean sweep into one of those. I'm not expecting radical gains, but it should at least serve as a protective shelter as things continue to go downhill.
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03-02-2009, 01:01 PM
#108
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Just be careful with the double bears - they are very volatile and have lots of time decay, so are only good for a few days at a time. If you time it right, there's a lot of money to be made. E.g. for the longest time, SKF in at 125 and out at 160 was so ridiculously repeatable and profitable.
If you have the means, selling options is potentially a very conservative way to make some modest money. No need to play with futures, you can just sell short-term (within next month) SPY call options after every rally. Just watch out for the infamous PPT OPEX rallies every OPEX Friday. (e.g. major market maker manipulation which the media never discusses but every day trader knows).
BenR, at the bottom, it will be good to get into Asian stocks, not US. The US capital markets are a has-been due to the fascist takeover. The Asians are becoming more capitalist, and the US more socialist/fascist.
LOL you mean it pays to not blindly follow the crowd. The crowd still thinks we have hit bottom despite announcing such at every new bottom.
If you have the means, selling options is potentially a very conservative way to make some modest money. No need to play with futures, you can just sell short-term (within next month) SPY call options after every rally. Just watch out for the infamous PPT OPEX rallies every OPEX Friday. (e.g. major market maker manipulation which the media never discusses but every day trader knows).
BenR, at the bottom, it will be good to get into Asian stocks, not US. The US capital markets are a has-been due to the fascist takeover. The Asians are becoming more capitalist, and the US more socialist/fascist.
LOL you mean it pays to not blindly follow the crowd. The crowd still thinks we have hit bottom despite announcing such at every new bottom.
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03-02-2009, 04:39 PM
#110
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Well, that was an interesting day. I decided to close my QID at 67.05, pocketing $2,800 for the day. Also closing out my $10k of BEARX, to free up that money for more interesting things.
It's funny. I remember back in the late 90's when the concept of day trading was in full swing. I didn't have any money at the time, and I pretty much viewed the activity as a fool's errand. After the bust when everyone lost their shirt, I felt oddly justified in my spite.
Now I'm seeing things though a different filter. The bust provides a target-rich environment. Lots and lots of high-beta activity to watch. This is a major adjustment- I've always taken a long-term approach. Scope out funds with consistent year-after-year returns, park my money in them, and peek in on it every month or two.
This is a whole different ballgame. But I'm starting to see how, with emotions kept in check, it has the potential to be a good one.
The principle downside is that my Schedule D for this year is going to be the size of a phone book.
SKF- holy ****, dude. +12% at the high today. And it's been porpoising for a while now. That would have been an interesting one to have been watching earlier. Looking back over the past six months, it seems like it may be approaching a crest right now. Unless Bank of America folds tomorrow morning, that one might be worth waiting for.
No, I meant what I said.
What killed me last October is that as everyone was panicking and fleeing, I sat back saying "but the fundamentals haven't changed. There's no reason for this madness..." and remained long, expecting a rebound. I should have realized that the major indices share many of the physical properties of a large rock and a hill. It is easy to push the rock down the hill, and once it gets moving it tends to pick up speed without any further input. Stopping the rock, and pushing it back up the hill again, is slow and laborious work, during which course you will stumble and slide many times.
In other words, when all the rats are jumping off the ship, it sometimes means that the ship is, in fact, sinking.
It's funny. I remember back in the late 90's when the concept of day trading was in full swing. I didn't have any money at the time, and I pretty much viewed the activity as a fool's errand. After the bust when everyone lost their shirt, I felt oddly justified in my spite.
Now I'm seeing things though a different filter. The bust provides a target-rich environment. Lots and lots of high-beta activity to watch. This is a major adjustment- I've always taken a long-term approach. Scope out funds with consistent year-after-year returns, park my money in them, and peek in on it every month or two.
This is a whole different ballgame. But I'm starting to see how, with emotions kept in check, it has the potential to be a good one.
The principle downside is that my Schedule D for this year is going to be the size of a phone book.
SKF- holy ****, dude. +12% at the high today. And it's been porpoising for a while now. That would have been an interesting one to have been watching earlier. Looking back over the past six months, it seems like it may be approaching a crest right now. Unless Bank of America folds tomorrow morning, that one might be worth waiting for.
What killed me last October is that as everyone was panicking and fleeing, I sat back saying "but the fundamentals haven't changed. There's no reason for this madness..." and remained long, expecting a rebound. I should have realized that the major indices share many of the physical properties of a large rock and a hill. It is easy to push the rock down the hill, and once it gets moving it tends to pick up speed without any further input. Stopping the rock, and pushing it back up the hill again, is slow and laborious work, during which course you will stumble and slide many times.
In other words, when all the rats are jumping off the ship, it sometimes means that the ship is, in fact, sinking.
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03-02-2009, 04:53 PM
#112
So would one say now is the time to buy stock?
My dads business partner was ready to jump out a window before he left for Florida about 2 months ago. I wonder now how much he's lost or if he got out in time.
Any of you guys have stock in Mannkind? Thats the one I was gonna jump on. They are local to me, we did the concrete work for the building. Supposed to be some break through **** with them.
My dads business partner was ready to jump out a window before he left for Florida about 2 months ago. I wonder now how much he's lost or if he got out in time.
Any of you guys have stock in Mannkind? Thats the one I was gonna jump on. They are local to me, we did the concrete work for the building. Supposed to be some break through **** with them.
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03-02-2009, 07:16 PM
#113
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Absolutely not.
The next downward waves (shoes to drop) will be Eastern European banking (SKF/UYG maybe), and US Commercial Real Estate (SRS/URE). Tighten your belts, it's still a long way down!
The next downward waves (shoes to drop) will be Eastern European banking (SKF/UYG maybe), and US Commercial Real Estate (SRS/URE). Tighten your belts, it's still a long way down!
Last edited by JasonC SBB; 03-02-2009 at 07:51 PM.
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03-02-2009, 07:50 PM
#114
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Originally Posted by ZX-Tex last October
Well I stayed in and at least for now I am glad I did. ...
All being said, I am still long-term Bullish and am staying in.
I'll trust Buffett over North anyday.
All being said, I am still long-term Bullish and am staying in.
I'll trust Buffett over North anyday.
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03-03-2009, 08:46 AM
#117
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It displeases me greatly to see a thread from which I was finally starting to gain some measure of insight devolve once again into petty bickering.
I have done some pruning.
Mud-slinging over differing schools of economic theory, the relative merits of socialist-style communism, and matters of that nature may be discussed here: https://www.miataturbo.net/forum/t32230/. You will find that those posts which have vanished from this thread are now located there.
Effective immediately, thisthread is about financial strategy, market behavior, and specific investment guidance.
I have done some pruning.
Mud-slinging over differing schools of economic theory, the relative merits of socialist-style communism, and matters of that nature may be discussed here: https://www.miataturbo.net/forum/t32230/. You will find that those posts which have vanished from this thread are now located there.
Effective immediately, thisthread is about financial strategy, market behavior, and specific investment guidance.
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03-03-2009, 09:11 AM
#118
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Hmm. I seem to have run into an interesting new problem with my brokerage (TD Ameritrade). Specifically, the Unsettled Balance.
As I said before, I've not historically been an active intra-day trader. And at present, I am not using margin, just cash only. Which seems to be causing me a problem. Example:
Yesterday, just before the bell, I closed out my position in QID ($44,914) and entered a sell order for a non exchange-traded fund, which cleared at 8:26pm for $10,641. Prior to this, there was a small puddle of cash sitting in the account unused.
Today, I have ~$57k in my account, however only $11,771 of it is "available", with the rest in "unsettled cash." This isn't a Rule 431 T+3 issue, it's just slow clearing. Which means that I'm essentially locked out from doing anything until it clears which, if history is any indicator, will take a day or two.
Is margin the answer? I'm not talking about using it as a money multiplier, just a tool for accessing the purchasing power which I theoretically, during the time in which it is unaccessible.
As I said before, I've not historically been an active intra-day trader. And at present, I am not using margin, just cash only. Which seems to be causing me a problem. Example:
Yesterday, just before the bell, I closed out my position in QID ($44,914) and entered a sell order for a non exchange-traded fund, which cleared at 8:26pm for $10,641. Prior to this, there was a small puddle of cash sitting in the account unused.
Today, I have ~$57k in my account, however only $11,771 of it is "available", with the rest in "unsettled cash." This isn't a Rule 431 T+3 issue, it's just slow clearing. Which means that I'm essentially locked out from doing anything until it clears which, if history is any indicator, will take a day or two.
Is margin the answer? I'm not talking about using it as a money multiplier, just a tool for accessing the purchasing power which I theoretically, during the time in which it is unaccessible.
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03-03-2009, 10:44 AM
#119
Hmm. I seem to have run into an interesting new problem with my brokerage (TD Ameritrade). Specifically, the Unsettled Balance.
As I said before, I've not historically been an active intra-day trader. And at present, I am not using margin, just cash only. Which seems to be causing me a problem. Example:
Yesterday, just before the bell, I closed out my position in QID ($44,914) and entered a sell order for a non exchange-traded fund, which cleared at 8:26pm for $10,641. Prior to this, there was a small puddle of cash sitting in the account unused.
Today, I have ~$57k in my account, however only $11,771 of it is "available", with the rest in "unsettled cash." This isn't a Rule 431 T+3 issue, it's just slow clearing. Which means that I'm essentially locked out from doing anything until it clears which, if history is any indicator, will take a day or two.
Is margin the answer? I'm not talking about using it as a money multiplier, just a tool for accessing the purchasing power which I theoretically, during the time in which it is unaccessible.
As I said before, I've not historically been an active intra-day trader. And at present, I am not using margin, just cash only. Which seems to be causing me a problem. Example:
Yesterday, just before the bell, I closed out my position in QID ($44,914) and entered a sell order for a non exchange-traded fund, which cleared at 8:26pm for $10,641. Prior to this, there was a small puddle of cash sitting in the account unused.
Today, I have ~$57k in my account, however only $11,771 of it is "available", with the rest in "unsettled cash." This isn't a Rule 431 T+3 issue, it's just slow clearing. Which means that I'm essentially locked out from doing anything until it clears which, if history is any indicator, will take a day or two.
Is margin the answer? I'm not talking about using it as a money multiplier, just a tool for accessing the purchasing power which I theoretically, during the time in which it is unaccessible.
Btw, historically markets have risen over time. If you are planning for retirement, then investing now, in good companies (i.e. do research for a little bit) are always good investments. My outlook it 30+ years. So buying now when markets are low is good for me.
For you guys, it seems that day trading is a different monster. I personally can't do it due to my job. So being able to watch the markets daily and be up on something is too risky for me.
There are other investments out there that minimize your risk (i.e. Mutal funds, bonds, etc) that you can get into. Also I've been looking at ETF's lately and found a couple of solid ones. You don't want to place all your eggs in one basket, especially for long term growth.
Now you can argue and blah blah blah. But reality is, that this market will take a hit, who knows if it is stable or not, NO ONE does for certain. It could easily drop and rise. I believe it will come back, it has to. If it doesn't, there are greater concerns than some stock market, like zombies in the country side...
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03-03-2009, 10:52 AM
#120
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Joe,
The problem isn't lack of margin, it's that Ameritrade takes 2 days or whatever to "settle" accounts. Move your money to Interactive Brokers. They settle in 15 minutes. Problem solved. I had the same problem with etrade.
And, if you plan to do lots of trades, be sure to register as a "professional trader" before April with the IRS. Check the number of trades needed to qualify. This will allow you to charge certain trades at a lower tax rate than straight income IIRC.
The problem isn't lack of margin, it's that Ameritrade takes 2 days or whatever to "settle" accounts. Move your money to Interactive Brokers. They settle in 15 minutes. Problem solved. I had the same problem with etrade.
And, if you plan to do lots of trades, be sure to register as a "professional trader" before April with the IRS. Check the number of trades needed to qualify. This will allow you to charge certain trades at a lower tax rate than straight income IIRC.
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