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See, I was thinking "Wow, that's a car that actually makes sense for city-folk like me, where neither range nor speed nor acceleration are in the least bit important."
And then I noticed the price.
And then I noticed that the article was from 2011.
Still, the lest expensive new EV in the US in 2024 is the Nissan Leaf. The cheapest one for sale near me has a sticker price of $23k. That's the model with bench seats. Meaning they stole a park bench and bolted it in.
(rimshot)
So, that's not as bad as it was 13 years ago. But... who is Nissan trying to please?
Me, I'd be fine with a 50 mile range, provided the car wasn't otherwise awful. In my situation, that means I'd need to plug it in once a week. In fact, if I could buy a Wuling Hong Guang Mini EV Cabrio (which, btw, is MADE BY GENERAL MOTORS) for even double the $4,400 equivalent MSRP, I probably would. My '04 Miata is so rusty underneath that this may be its last summer, and it's not like the Hong Guang's 62 mph top speed is a hinderance. You're not gonna move any faster than that in Chicago if if you're driving a 911 GT3 RS.
But I'm not everyone. So, if I'm not, who is?
Here's a fun fact: a mere 10% of drivers in the US account for about one-third of our total gasoline consumption. These so-called "Super-Drivers" average around 40,200 miles per year, or about 154 miles per day if we assume five days per week. I'm sure that most of us here know someone like this.
Now, if you do not believe that burning fossil fuels is a prime contributor to global warming, nor that global warming, on the whole, is detrimental to the earth and most of the vertebrate animals living on it, then I'm sorry I wasted your time getting this far. To be fair, you should have figured it out more quickly than this, as that's really what the whole EV thing is about.
In the US, transportation is marginally the largest consumer of all fossil fuels in total, and by a huge margin the largest consumer of petroleum.
Now, that figure includes OTR trucks, air, and rail, but it turns out that those are so massively efficient that it doesn't matter one bit how often Taylor Swift or Donald Trump fly around in their private jets, as people who own 757s and Dassault Falcon 7s are such a small minority that they don't even register. It feels good to ridicule them, and by all means take advantage of that cathartic opportunity, but passenger cars and light trucks are the gorilla in this room.
For reference:
• An Airbus A321 Neo averages 123 mpg per seat.
• The average 18 wheeler does about 140 mpg per ton of cargo, while a brand new rig like a Kenworth T680 will do closer to 190.
• And a typical freight train delivers an astonishing 436 mpg per ton of cargo.
Commercial transportation is a speck of dust compared to the family of four with a minivan, an F-150, and two kids in youth sportsball leagues.
So why aren't the people who drive the most buying EVs?
Well, you'd have to ask them.
Presently, the average gasoline-powered car is driven 12,813 miles a year, while the average EV is driven 10,256.
The cars which cost the most are driven the least. And it's not a small difference, either. Due to the combination of the higher initial purchase price and the lower utilization, the average EV costs its owner a staggering 63.6% more per mile to operate than the equivalent gasoline-powered car.
Obviously, we also need to have the whole "but EVs merely displace emissions from the road to the power plant." That's a topic for another rant, but the cliff's notes summary is: Not as much as you might think. It turns out to be easier to monitor and control the emissions from a single coal plant than from a hundred thousand cars. And coal has now officially fallen to less than 20% market share in the US. Natgas (a domestic product) leads the way with a 40% share, with nuclear and other renewables accounting for the remaining 40%. That's not just good for the air, it's good for the economy, too.
I am waiting for a good deal on a Model 3 Performance, and then I will let my ND go. I have heard you can get one for just over $40k (after tax rebate) if you are patient. For my 12 mile commute with ~25 lights and one freeway on ramp, 0-60 will be more fun than top down quick turns. I also really need a trunk that I can put a squirrel trap (with squirrel) in. Don't really like the looks, but what ever. Might do a Pandem body kit on it.
Plus we could use one to develop wheels and parts.
Now, if you do not believe that burning fossil fuels is a prime contributor to global warming, nor that global warming, on the whole, is detrimental to the earth and most of the vertebrate animals living on it, then I'm sorry I wasted your time getting this far. To be fair, you should have figured it out more quickly than this, as that's really what the whole EV thing is about.
Ridiculous.
We live so close to our sun that on any given day, somewhere on the Earth, if you're not properly protected, that sun can literally burn the flesh off of you. And on that same day, on another part of the planet, if you're not properly protected, you could be frozen solid.
If you DON'T believe the climate changes, you're a moron.
If you believe governments somehow know how to change the climate using your tax dollars, you're a moron.
We live so close to our sun that on any given day, somewhere on the Earth, if you're not properly protected, that sun can literally burn the flesh off of you. And on that same day, on another part of the planet, if you're not properly protected, you could be frozen solid.
If you DON'T believe the climate changes, you're a moron.
If you believe governments somehow know how to change the climate using your tax dollars, you're a moron.
Anybody who believes that people in the “developing world” really care all that much about climate change is just self-deluding. India, China, Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South America are all going to continue increasing fossil fuel consumption and resulting carbon emissions at a rate that will make anything the US does beside the point.
If you can make an economic and practical case for owning an electric vehicle, that’s good. If owning a Tesla makes you feel better about yourself even though the cost/benefit ratio isn’t good (like some of my family), that’s good too. Just don’t think that by driving an EV you’ll be saving the planet.
My biggest gripe about EV’s is that the gummint is trying to force us all into them without considering that the necessary infrastructure is unlikely to be available throughout the US in my lifetime - given what I’ve seen about new electric generation and distribution projects, probably several of my lifetimes.
Anybody who believes that people in the “developing world” really care all that much about climate change is just self-deluding. India, China, Sub-Saharan Africa, parts of South America are all going to continue increasing fossil fuel consumption and resulting carbon emissions at a rate that will make anything the US does beside the point.
Oh, sure. China only recently started requiring catalytic converts on new cars. And let's not forget as we sit here in our comfy, air-conditioned homes that roughly 750 million people on this planet don't even have access to electricity. Roughly 10% of the global population. Huge numbers of people are burning kerosene, coal, wood, anything they can get their hands on, just to cook and stay warm.
However, despite poormxdad's suspicions, this thread really is supposed to be about the economics of the EV industry. It's merely necessary to recognize the ecological and political factors influencing the present-day resurgence in interest in them.
Location: Detroit (the part with no rules or laws)
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I'm that someone. I'll easily do 50k miles in one year. But it is spread out over 4 vehicles and a motorcycle. I'll do 15k miles just going racing throughout the summer, at 10mpg in the motorhome.
I think the better question is: How can people actually live with one?
If every person in the USA was given an electric car today how practical would it be? And if not practical, what would it take to make it practical?
A few questions i'm puzzled by:
Why do we never talk about the production of batteries? We always talk about the production of energy and i think it's well known that mass producing power is better than burning it at the source (in your ICE vehicle).Strip mining the earth for all the rare earth materials needed inside these cells seems just as bad as drilling for oil, maybe worse.
What happens when everyone is leasing these silly electric cars for 3-5 years and turns them in? What's the resale market going to look like?
How are we recycling these batteries when the resale market is oversaturated or when these vehicles rot out from salt in the midwest in 7 years? Are they going to end up in a landfill, maybe in a 3rd world country burning in a 1000 acre trash pile so some 7 year old child can sift through it for the materials that he'll sell for 12 grains of rice to feed his family - all while out of sight out of mind to us in the first world, just so we can feel good about ourselves because bought leased the newest 60k electric SUV on the premise that we're saving the climate.
Me personally, i think the greatest impact everyone could do is ride a motorcycle. A lot has changed with motorcycle emissions recently. They just seem like a better single person mode of transportation.
It mostly comes down to price. EV are way too expensive for the shitboxes they are. I can't afford another $30k vehicle just to burn marginally less gas. Me, driving about 9k miles per year in my 21/25 mpg truck still puts less nastiness into the air than some clown driving 25k per year in whatever vehicle they use. And if that vehicle is a 1970's or 80's truck that gets less than 12 mpg, maybe it's time we require special registrations/permits for older vehicles.
And after my last accident, there is no way in hell I'm ever driving a motorcycle.
However, despite poormxdad's suspicions, this thread really is supposed to be about the economics of the EV industry. It's merely necessary to recognize the ecological and political factors influencing the present-day resurgence in interest in them.
So long as the supply/demand curves are driven by executive fiat, the large-scale economics will be FUBAR.
Why, for example, is Ford’s electric vehicle business losing hundreds of millions of dollars annually? https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/23/busin...ses/index.html
Normally, a rational model would be to make things that people want, at a price that they might actually be willing to pay, at an acceptable profit.
Instead, they’re designing and scaling up for volume production in the hopes that when they are finally able to achieve efficiencies of scale, the American consumer might buy their vehicles in large numbers.
I realize that there’s always a risk in these kinds of ballsy entrepreneurial moves, but they have to rely on the federal government’s predictions of consumer behavior having some basis in reality. Most of what I see out of the government’s policy offices would seem fantastic to the folks at Hogwarts.
Ev’s and plug hybrids make sense when your employer offers free charging and/or you have solar at your residence. Another requirement is a tax break.
An example would be my head machinist lives 40mi from work. He purchased a plug-in Prius which cost $35k. We let him charge it while he is at work which covers one way. He got a tax deduction of $5k and has solar at home. It’s not a bad car to commute in and has been very reliable as one would expect from a Toyota.
EV’s are not for everyone although they are marketed to everyone. Imo with more advances in battery tech they will become the standard. They will out perform ice and last longer.
I am in outside sales and drive 30-40k mi a year. The best pure EV would not be practical and sometimes even possible for me to use. They have **** build quality and won't last 400k miles like my Tundra, won't pull my Miata on a trailer, or take my boat all the way to a lake in Georgia. So, yeah, not for everyone.
All the new "enthusiasts" (aka Tesla people who realized fast cars are fun after ridiculing for years) simply can't understand why I am not in a M3P. Bottom line is that EVs don't interest me. I have a degree in electrical/electronics engineering. ICE facinates me, I am a student of the science of combustion.
that said, bottom line is that EV is superior technology in nearly every respect. Sure, there are still a few capability gaps, but these will close quickly. Unless something drastic occurs, I will never buy a new ICE car again.
oh, and you haven't been in a Waymo yet... none of us will be driving cars here before too long.
Why do we never talk about the production of batteries? We always talk about the production of energy and i think it's well known that mass producing power is better than burning it at the source (in your ICE vehicle).Strip mining the earth for all the rare earth materials needed inside these cells seems just as bad as drilling for oil, maybe worse.
What happens when everyone is leasing these silly electric cars for 3-5 years and turns them in? What's the resale market going to look like?
How are we recycling these batteries when the resale market is oversaturated or when these vehicles rot out from salt in the midwest in 7 years? Are they going to end up in a landfill, maybe in a 3rd world country burning in a 1000 acre trash pile so some 7 year old child can sift through it for the materials that he'll sell for 12 grains of rice to feed his family - all while out of sight out of mind to us in the first world, just so we can feel good about ourselves because bought leased the newest 60k electric SUV on the premise that we're saving the climate.
Me personally, i think the greatest impact everyone could do is ride a motorcycle. A lot has changed with motorcycle emissions recently. They just seem like a better single person mode of transportation.
Thank you, by far, all of this. The behind the curtain, where did it come from, how did we get it, who cares stuff hardly ever gets discussed so long as the agenda gets pushed forward.
Totally agree on the bike economy thing as well, save for saving yourself... nowadays people don't want to drive, they want to watch YouTube, surf Life Invader... err.. Book of Faces, put on makeup, eat a bagel... anything but drive. One is, unfortunately, at more risk than ever on a bike, at least in any sort of metropolitan area.
Bottom line is that EVs don't interest me. I have a degree in electrical/electronics engineering. ICE facinates me, I am a student of the science of combustion.
that said, bottom line is that EV is superior technology in nearly every respect.
I'm with you man. Combustion is a basic part of being human because fire. I might get smoked by a Tesla at a stoplight, but don't really care because the old school Grand Cherokee makes 'Murican V8 sounds and gets 15 MPG while exploring terrain that EVs dare not tread. Situational awareness, the right tool for the job.
Don't get me started on the custom V10 gas-powered off-grid RV we've been living out of the last three years that tows said GC.
05-24-2024, 06:02 PM
In this thread, I am puzzled by EVs
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