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Old 03-17-2014, 05:22 PM   #1
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Default Interesting conspiracy theory about Malaysian Airlines 370

Keith Ledgerwood
Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68 (another 777)?
Monday, March 17, 2014 - 12:01 AM EST
By: Keith Ledgerwood

As the search for missing flight Malaysian Airlines flight 370 drags on into the 10th day, so many questions continue to remain unanswered about how and why the airliner could have disappeared while seemingly under the control of a skilled pilot intent on making it invisible. With satellite pings showing where the plane could be after more than seven hours of flight, speculation has arisen that the plane could be on the ground anywhere along a path from northern Thailand to the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

The major roadblock to this theory has been the insistence from India and Pakistan that their radar network showed no such unidentified aircraft entering or traversing their airspace. It would seem highly unlikely given such information that a Boeing 777 could indeed slip through undetected.

As a hobby pilot and aviation enthusiast, a theory began to form in my own mind on this 10th day as all of the latest information began to trickle in slowly through media outlets globally. After being unable to escape the idea that it may have happened, I began to do some analysis and research and what I discovered was very troubling to me!

Starting with a set of facts that have been made available publically and verified over the past few days, I first plotted MH370’s course onto an aviation IFR map which shows the airways and waypoints used to navigate the skies. I plotted the point where it stopped transmitting ADS-B information at 1621UTC. I then plotted the Malaysian military radar track from that point towards “VAMPI”, “GIVAL”, and then onward toward “IGREX” on P628 ending with where the plane should be at 1715UTC when military radar lost contact.

That chart looks like this:


Source: SkyVector.com


Nothing profound there… but then I looked to see what other planes were in the air at 1715UTC and I looked to see exactly where they were positioned in the sky and where they were flying. The picture started to develop when I discovered that another Boeing 777 was en-route from Singapore over the Andaman Sea.


Source: FlightRadar24.com

I investigated further and plotted the exact coordinates of Singapore Airlines flight number 68’s location at 1715UTC onto the aviation map. I quickly realized that SIA68 was in the immediate vicinity as the missing MH370 flight at precisely the same time. Moreover, SIA68 was en-route on a heading towards the same IGREX waypoint on airway P628 that the Malaysian military radar had shown MH370 headed towards at precisely the same time.


Source: SkyVector.com

It became apparent as I inspected SIA68’s flight path history that MH370 had maneuvered itself directly behind SIA68 at approximately 17:00UTC and over the next 15 minutes had been following SIA68. All the pieces of my theory had been fitting together with the facts that have been publically released and I began to feel a little uneasy.

Singapore Airlines Flight 68 proceeded across the Andaman Sea into the Bay of Bengal and finally into India’s airspace. From there it appears to have proceeded across India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and finally Turkmenistan before proceeding onward across Europe to its final destination of Barcelona, Spain.

This map depicts the approximate flight path of SIA flight 68 on that particular day. Additional detail will be required from each countries aviation authorities to establish exact particulars of the route.


Source: SkyVector.com

So by now, you may have caught on or you may be scratching your head and wondering if I’ve gone insane! How does SIA68 have anything to do with MH370 disappearing? Remember the one challenge that is currently making everyone doubt that MH370 actually flew to Turkmenistan, Iran, China, or Kyrgyzstan? That challenge is the thought that MH370 couldn’t make it through several key airspaces such as India or Afghanistan without being detected by the military.

It is my belief that MH370 likely flew in the shadow of SIA68 through India and Afghanistan airspace. As MH370 was flying “dark” without transponder / ADS-B output, SIA68 would have had no knowledge that MH370 was anywhere around and as it entered Indian airspace, it would have shown up as one single blip on the radar with only the transponder information of SIA68 lighting up ATC and military radar screens.

Wouldn’t the SIA68 flight have detected MH370? NO! The Boeing 777 utilizes a TCAS system for traffic avoidance; the system would ordinarily provide alerts and visualization to pilots if another airplane was too close. However that system only operates by receiving the transponder information from other planes and displaying it for the pilot. If MH370 was flying without the transponder, it would have been invisible to SIA68.

In addition, the TCAS system onboard MH370 would have enabled the pilot(s) to easily locate and approach SIA68 over the Straits of Malacca as they appeared to have done. The system would have shown them the flight’s direction of travel and the altitude it was traveling which would have enabled them to perfectly time an intercept right behind the other Boeing 777. Here is a picture of a TCAS system onboard a 777.



How does this solve the mystery??? We know MH370 didn’t fly to Spain! Once MH370 had cleared the volatile airspaces and was safe from being detected by military radar sites in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan it would have been free to break off from the shadow of SIA68 and could have then flown a path to it’s final landing site. There are several locations along the flight path of SIA68 where it could have easily broken contact and flown and landed in Xingjian province, Kyrgyzstan, or Turkmenistan. Each of these final locations would match up almost perfectly with the 7.5 hours of total flight time and trailing SIA68. In addition, these locations are all possibilities that are on the “ARC” and fit with the data provided by Inmarsat from the SATCOM’s last known ping at 00:11UTC.

There are too many oddities in this whole story that don’t make sense if this theory isn’t the answer in my opinion. Why did MH370 fly a seemingly haphazard route and suddenly start heading northwest towards the Andaman Islands on P628? If not for this reason, it seems like a rather odd maneuver. The timing and evasive actions seem deliberate. Someone went through great lengths to attempt to become stealthy and disable ACARS, transponder/ADS-B (even though SATCOM to Inmarsat was left powered).

After looking at all the details, it is my opinion that MH370 snuck out of the Bay of Bengal using SIA68 as the perfect cover. It entered radar coverage already in the radar shadow of the other 777, stayed there throughout coverage, and then exited SIA68’s shadow and then most likely landed in one of several land locations north of India and Afghanistan.

Sources: SkyVector.com, FlightRadar24.com, FlightAware.com, CNN.com, Reuters.com.
-Keith L.
[email protected]

I find some of his conclusions to be slightly unfounded (eg: "We know MH370 didn’t fly to Spain!" when in fact we only suspect that, we do not know it to be true), but the overall gist is that someone devised and executed a plan of James-Bondian proportions to steal a Boeing 777 and make it look like an accident.
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Old 03-17-2014, 05:55 PM   #2
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Author assumes there wasn't enough fuel to reach Spain.

As for using TCAS or ADS-B to perform the intercept, those systems would need to be turned on to make that happen. If that were the case, SIA68's TCAS would have been SCREAMING as MH370 approached.

That said and assuming some military/tactical experience on the part of MH370's crew, a visual intercept would have been a snap. You can see other aircraft for tens of miles in good weather at night.

Interesting theory. I hope they find this jet and give the victim's relatives some peace.
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Old 03-17-2014, 06:33 PM   #3
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Tl;dr aliens
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Old 03-17-2014, 08:34 PM   #4
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I would think a 777 would be too big to hide in anther planes "shadow" so to speak. That being said I know nothing about radar signatures of airplanes, or how good the radar systems are where the plane seems to have disappeared.

I read somewhere that an explosion aboard an aircraft would leave no derbies field, I do not know if this is true or not (I kinda find it hard to believe), but there are many terror groups operating in Southeast Asia. That being said a group probably would have calmed responsibility by now, after all whats the point of committing an act of terror if you don't terrorize anyone.
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Old 03-17-2014, 08:50 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gearhead_318 View Post
That being said a group probably would have calmed responsibility by now, after all whats the point of committing an act of terror if you don't terrorize anyone.
Because its not over yet.
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Old 03-17-2014, 09:10 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by Ryan_G View Post
Because its not over yet.
Its been 10 days and nothing else has happened. I'm sure security forces have their guard up, but I would think the next part of any attack would have happened by now. Not saying your wrong, but hijacking an aircraft for the purpose of using it as a missile later on would require any terrorist to land the aircraft, which would require a runway. Not saying its imposable though.
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Old 03-17-2014, 09:44 PM   #7
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Originally Posted by hornetball View Post
As for using TCAS or ADS-B to perform the intercept, those systems would need to be turned on to make that happen. If that were the case, SIA68's TCAS would have been SCREAMING as MH370 approached.
I interpreted that part as suggesting that the crew aboard MH370 could have used its SSR to plot the course of SIA68 from a stand-off position while still on their filed plan. Once they had established an intercept solution, they would then have gone dark and changed course for a dead-reckoning / visual rendezvous.

It'd be a risky proposition, but plausible.



Quote:
Originally Posted by hornetball View Post
Interesting theory. I hope they find this jet and give the victim's relatives some peace.
The more I think about this, the more it actually seems like a Roger Moore-era James Bond storyline. All we need now is to have it revealed that MH370 was carrying either an unusually valuable cargo or a VIP of some significance, and that the flight crew assignment was changed at the last minute under a dubious explanation.




Quote:
Originally Posted by gearhead_318 View Post
I would think a 777 would be too big to hide in anther planes "shadow" so to speak. That being said I know nothing about radar signatures of airplanes, or how good the radar systems are where the plane seems to have disappeared.
Depends on the radar in question.

At close range, a modern phased-array SAM launcher could tell the difference between the #1 and #2 engines. At long-range, a typical surveillance radar takes it on faith that the airplane's transponder is working as intended and does a lot of filtering to reduce background noise and null out spurious reflections.


Quote:
I read somewhere that an explosion aboard an aircraft would leave no derbies field, I do not know if this is true or not (I kinda find it hard to believe),
I'm no expert either, but I do know that there are a hell of a lot of things on a typical passenger airplane that are specifically designed to float in water. Seat cushions, life rafts and life vests which inflate automatically, etc. Anything short of a nuclear explosion would have scattered a lot of that material without destroying it.
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Old 03-17-2014, 10:48 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gearhead_318 View Post
Its been 10 days and nothing else has happened. I'm sure security forces have their guard up, but I would think the next part of any attack would have happened by now. Not saying your wrong, but hijacking an aircraft for the purpose of using it as a missile later on would require any terrorist to land the aircraft, which would require a runway. Not saying its imposable though.
If indeed the aircraft was 'stolen', is this generally accepted as the most likely explanation for what they would have wanted it for? Are there any other plausible reasons for wanting the plane?
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Old 03-18-2014, 08:41 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by good2go View Post
If indeed the aircraft was 'stolen', is this generally accepted as the most likely explanation for what they would have wanted it for? Are there any other plausible reasons for wanting the plane?
Just speculating wildly, but...

1: Ransom (decreasingly likely as time goes on).

2: They didn't want the plane itself, but rather someone or something that was aboard it (the Thunderball hypothesis.)

3: Industrial espionage.

4: A rogue state wishes to purchase it for government or military use other than as a kamikaze weapon.

5: This is the result of a drunken bet made years ago at a tavern in Marrakesh.

6: It's being parted out as we speak, and bits of it will soon hit craigslist.ru

7: Now that the re-construction of One World is complete, small pieces of MH370 are going to be altered, selectively re-buried, and then "discovered" as proof that the 9/11 attacks were perpetrated by CIA-funded time travelers as part of an intricate plot to prop up the US Federal Reserve against a (now-averted) collapse in the year 2019. (The JasonC hypothesis.)
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Old 03-18-2014, 09:04 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gearhead_318 View Post
I would think a 777 would be too big to hide in anther planes "shadow" so to speak. That being said I know nothing about radar signatures of airplanes, or how good the radar systems are where the plane seems to have disappeared.
I also am not a radar expert, but there are some games you can play with radars if you understand how they work. As an example, I believe if you fly in a circle around a pulse Doppler radar, it will not be able to detect you because there will be no Doppler shift in your radar return.

According to the Wikipedia article on transponders, search radars are not very good a providing altitude readings. They provide range and bearing, and rely on the transponder to report altitude. Feasibly this means you could fly some distance under the aircraft, as the radar would read the single transponder and think there was only a single aircraft.


In the discussions my office had about this incident, someone said that they didn't think that the should have the ability to turn off the transponders. I ended up being in the minority opinion that they should saying that they should. What do you guys think? My thoughts were the more control a pilot has over the plan the better, this allows you more flexibility in responding to unexpected situations. Also, If you can't trust your pilots to operate a transponder properly, then you shouldn't trust them to fly a plane with 300 people onboard.
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Old 03-18-2014, 10:17 AM   #11
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Thought this was appropriate:
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Old 03-18-2014, 01:31 PM   #12
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This seems much more plausible, although I do love a good conspiracy theory.

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com
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Old 03-18-2014, 02:19 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rleete View Post
Thought this was appropriate:
I laughed.
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Old 03-18-2014, 03:57 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by z31maniac View Post
This seems much more plausible, although I do love a good conspiracy theory.

A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com
And apparently not, we have a few pilots on a different forum discussing this:

mulletman said: "I'll be the first to call BS on that fire theory. For that story to work, the following have to be true:

- The fire was enough to overwhelm the crew, but then not enough to compromise the rest of the airplane. Fires don't do this.
- Part of the Emergency checklist for smoke or fire involves powering down the airplane completely.
- While the airplane is burning, the autopilot continues to function. The A/P was one of the very first casualties of the SwissAir crash. Autopilots are designed to self-disengage if issues start happening. A medium-sized bump of turbulence is usually enough to cause the A/P to disengage.


That article states that "Yes, the pilots have oxygen masks, but this is a no-no with fire." Bull. ****. Want to know what the FIRST action item is at my airline when smoke is detected? The person who identifies the smoke will state: "SMOKE. DON MASK." Then the Ox mask donning procedure is to be completed before anything else is done. No checklist will ever direct you to completely power down the airplane while in-flight. If that is done, you lose all fire caution and warning advisory systems, which is exactly what you don't want happening.

If you want a good example of how fires progress in airplanes, take a look at SwissAir 111. Airplanes are complex, and do not suffer fires well. People, if they're provided with oxygen to breathe, will handle fires actually quite well. The SwissAir crew was still trying to fly the airplane even as their plastic checklist was melting into a solid chunk. In case you don't want to look it up, here are some of the facts about 111:

- The time between smoke detection and impact with the surface was 16 minutes. They were at 33,000 feet when the scenario started.
- In that time, the fire became intense enough to trigger a fire detection in the #2 engine, mounted high above the fuselage. Engine detection systems work based on heat detection. So in 16 minutes, they went from "Hey, do you smell something?" to entire length of the airplane completely engulfed in flames.


The rule of thumb with fire in an airplane is simple: GET DOWN. Had the Malaysian crew been on fire, and made a turn toward an airport, they also would have started a pretty severe descent. If fire was the cause, your search radius would be small enough that all you'd need would be a boat and a pair of binoculars. "

Missing Flight MH370 777-200 - Page 12 - R3VLimited Forums
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Old 03-18-2014, 07:33 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by good2go View Post
If indeed the aircraft was 'stolen', is this generally accepted as the most likely explanation for what they would have wanted it for? Are there any other plausible reasons for wanting the plane?
I would say to use it as a missile. Maybe for smuggling goods, or back words engineering, but I would think their are better ways of doing both that don't include a plane full of people and a transponder. Stealing one from the ground while its in a country with soft security would be one way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Perez View Post
4: A rogue state wishes to purchase it for government or military use other than as a kamikaze weapon.
I would think it would be easier to buy one from a 3rd party. Rogue states get stuff they aren't supposed to have all the time. A rare full auto Glock 18 was found with Saddam Hussein when he was captured (and later presented to G.W. Bush by the team who got him {'merka}), this is not the sort of thing one can just buy from a gun store. Point being people can get **** that they are not supposed to have. Maybe a 777 is new and special or something, but I would think a similar plane could be had for less hassle.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Davezorz View Post
According to the Wikipedia article on transponders, search radars are not very good a providing altitude readings. They provide range and bearing, and rely on the transponder to report altitude. Feasibly this means you could fly some distance under the aircraft, as the radar would read the single transponder and think there was only a single aircraft.
Supposedly Seal Team 6 flew under Pakistani radar to carry out the raid on OBL.
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Old 03-18-2014, 08:14 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by gearhead_318 View Post
I would think it would be easier to buy one from a 3rd party. Rogue states get stuff they aren't supposed to have all the time. A rare full auto Glock 18 was found with Saddam Hussein when he was captured (and later presented to G.W. Bush by the team who got him {'merka}), this is not the sort of thing one can just buy from a gun store. Point being people can get **** that they are not supposed to have. Maybe a 777 is new and special or something, but I would think a similar plane could be had for less hassle.
I didn't say it was a likely theory. (Mentioning Craigslist and the plot from the movie Thunderball was supposed to denote the list as not-entirely-serious.)
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Old 03-18-2014, 08:34 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gearhead_318 View Post
...

Supposedly Seal Team 6 flew under Pakistani radar to carry out the raid on OBL.
True, but weren't they supposedly terrain following in some kind of stealth choppers . . . as opposed to a huge airliner?
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Old 03-18-2014, 11:08 PM   #18
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I'm surprised with all the other info here, we don't have any pilots.
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Old 03-18-2014, 11:29 PM   #19
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it is entirely possible to fly under radar over water in a non-stealth plane. Radar starts hallucinating at long ranges and low altitudes, in order to prevent that, you simply don't detect anything below, say, 500' AGL.
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Old 03-19-2014, 12:14 AM   #20
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it is entirely possible to fly under radar over water in a non-stealth plane. Radar starts hallucinating at long ranges and low altitudes, in order to prevent that, you simply don't detect anything below, say, 500' AGL.
Sure.

It's also possible the Semiconductor company out of Austin hatched a scheme to kill 20 of their employees by orchestrating the hijacking/crashing of an International flight to get the other 80% of patent for some unknown radio-based weapon.


Who is going to post about the WTC 7 coming down without a building hitting it?
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