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Old 04-17-2012, 05:37 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonC SBB View Post
Others who say the same thing, suggest that you are better off investing what would go into a 401k, into a small biz.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonC SBB View Post
Re: "Financial collapse" - what I think is most probable is the Fed Gov will face a severe deficit, and REAL cuts will be needed. No, it's not a "collapse". These sacred cows will be seen as easy to gore:

- Military
- gov't contractors
- Gov't pensioners
- Retirees
- Medicare/Medicaid/Obamacare
- home loan interest tax breaks
- retirement accounts

The "mayhem" will probably be limited to riots a la England and Greece, and swaths of the population dependent on the gov't teat, seeing their handouts shrink.
how do you pick a small business to invest in when the economy is so bad that the govt is dipping into retirement account tax breaks for revenue?

invest in tax accountants?
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Old 04-17-2012, 05:45 PM   #22
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The Federal Reserve will not inflate enough to risk more than mass inflation (10-15% per year).

Last edited by JasonC SBB; 04-17-2012 at 07:50 PM.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:15 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by JasonC SBB View Post
Additionally don't put money into a 401k with crappy Wall St only choices for investments.
Fun fact: Peter Schiff runs Euro Pacific Capital, Inc. He chairs the investment commitee for the mutual funds available for "small" retail investors that do not qualify for the separately managed accounts and private placements. They all invest in "Wall St" style securities, including the Hard Asset fund (EPHAX) and International Bond fund (EPIBX).

I'm all for starting a successful business if you have the entrepenuerial spirit and business sense, but it's not for everyone.


The only ways Jason's market and economic outlook are going to make money are (A) recommending buying gold, (B) start selling a fear-based newsletter, (C) become inspired to start a small business that becomes successful.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:24 PM   #24
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What I mean about crappy Wall St 401k choices are "big cap / small cap / stocks / bonds" etc.

You can't pick narrow sectors like companies that do oil fracking, or stock pick like Amazon or Walmart.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:25 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by scrappy jack View Post
the only ways jason's market and economic outlook are going to make money are (a) recommending buying gold, (b) start selling a fear-based newsletter, (c) become inspired to start a small business that sells based on the fear generated by (b) and becomes successful.
ftfy
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:27 PM   #26
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Scrappy Jack is making the false dichotomy logical fallacy:
"The economy will be hunky dorey in 20 years or all hell will break loose. The latter is silly therefore it will be hunky dory".

I think it's gonna be well in between.

Quote:
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how do you pick a small business to invest in when the economy is so bad that the govt is dipping into retirement account tax breaks for revenue?

invest in tax accountants?
"Gov't deficit is so bad that the bastards need to make real cuts" is not the same as "The economy is so bad that no biz will make money"

Some random examples off the top of my head, of recession resistant biz:
- retirement homes
- day care center
- rental property
- home appliance repair

Last edited by JasonC SBB; 04-17-2012 at 06:46 PM.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:51 PM   #27
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Fun fact: Peter Schiff runs Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.

I love Schiff. i want him to adopt me.
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Old 04-17-2012, 08:38 PM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JasonC SBB View Post
Scrappy Jack is making the false dichotomy logical fallacy:
"The economy will be hunky dorey in 20 years or all hell will break loose. The latter is silly therefore it will be hunky dory".

I think it's gonna be well in between.
I don't want this thread to turn in to a pissing match as it's already getting well derailed from Mark's original question, but you are attributing an argument to me that I never made. If anyone is making the false dichotomy fallacy, it's you when you presume that "because I don't think the US government will experience financial collapse, I must believe the economy will be hunky dorey."


I am going to try harder not to be "that guy" that brings monetary systems and macro-economics in to every thread, so I am happy to continue that element in one of the other two we have going.
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Old 04-17-2012, 09:28 PM   #29
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Well you were the one who set up a strawman by saying I implied a financial collapse:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scrappy
"If you feel there is a reasonable probability of financial collapse in the USA, you should be buying a house in Costa Rica or saving for an apartment in Singapore and stockpiling canned goods and ammunition and planning your escape route once the mayhem ensues."
I'm telling the OP what Kiyosaki has said. I think it is very sound advice.

And do not assume that the tax laws that apply today for retirees withdrawing from their retirement accounts, will apply in 10-20 years.

And I explained why.

I myself am looking into where to buy rental real estate, and into small businesses to invest. So I'm putting my money where my mouth is. I'm not looking into "buying ammo and food stockpiles".

P.S. One good reason for contributing into a 401k is if the employer "matches". Put in the minimum that will maximize the employer contribution. This way even if you decide to pull out your entire 401k because the Fed Gov is about to pull an Argentina, and eat the 10% penalty and taxes, you still come out ahead.
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Old 04-17-2012, 09:37 PM   #30
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Quote:
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A 401k/IRA/Roth does not depend on current tax law or rates to be profitable. They may be less profitable or efficient if tax law changes - or they might be more so, depending on how the tax law changes.

I cannot think of an example where the US government has completely changed the taxation of an investment vehicle (like a 401k/IRA/pension/annuity/etc) that would affect the majority of the investing public. I am open to being corrected.
Not an investment vehicle, but look at AMT. The non-indexing for inflation and the resultant bracket creep means a bigger and bigger percentage of households will have to pay it. But you can see how the gov't just taxes more and more.
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Old 04-17-2012, 10:55 PM   #31
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just to bring it back to what simplified conventional wisdom would suggest:

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Originally Posted by mgeoffriau View Post
But I'm interested in investing for retirement.

IRA? Roth IRA? What do you guys do?
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Originally Posted by y8s View Post
first max out roth ira
then regular ira
that's what I do. my employer funds my 401k without me contributing anything.

scrappy mentioned limiting your Roth contributions based on your tax bracket but keep in mind it'll phase out above a certain income level anyway. It's still a pretty reasonable investment and you can always pull out your contributions (NOT the earnings) without penalty.

also you can invest in individual stocks or [wtf / god forbid] fracking-practicing gas companies with a Roth IRA / IRA.

start there. If you want to research Jason-style investment later, you still can.
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Old 04-17-2012, 11:28 PM   #32
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first max out roth ira
then regular ira
you forgot

/thread



This is the only true answer.
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Old 04-17-2012, 11:32 PM   #33
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OK, I just read the rest of the thread. Jason C, is is necessary for you to tinfoil hat every single topic? Do you actually BELIEVE half of the things that you say here?
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Old 04-18-2012, 12:03 AM   #34
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Yes, yes he does Stein.
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Old 04-18-2012, 12:25 AM   #35
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That's pretty sad. It would be one thing if he was just trolling for the lols but to believe it straight out is a bit dim.
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Old 04-18-2012, 12:56 AM   #36
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I don't mind the thread drift. If I were looking for 100% serious advice, I'd be sitting down with a financial advisor, not posting questions on an internet forum dedicated to a secretary's car.

Roth IRA seems to be the obvious choice here, especially since my current income level is probably lower than any of you would guess.
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Old 04-18-2012, 12:58 AM   #37
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A buck fiddy?
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Old 04-18-2012, 01:08 AM   #38
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Quote:
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Roth IRA seems to be the obvious choice here, especially since my current income level is probably lower than any of you would guess.
You are correct.
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Old 04-18-2012, 02:18 AM   #39
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The thread was trashed before I got here but I'll add my $.02

IRA - Buy Apple at $0.06 and sell for $600,000 a share - pay hundreds of Billion$ in taxes on the profits
Roth - Buy 15% less shares of Apple - pay $0 in taxes on the profits

I've used my Roth to buy more risky investments than my wife has. This may be why she has 3x as much in her Roth as I do even though we invested identical amounts. Anyway, your investment choices may also change the type of IRA you should use.
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Old 04-18-2012, 10:07 AM   #40
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i remember when i wanted to buy apple at around $120 a share....im stupid fo rnot.
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