About those big one day stock market rallies - Miata Turbo Forum - Boost cars, acquire cats.

Welcome to Miataturbo.net   Members
 


Insert BS here A place to discuss anything you want

Reply
 
 
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 11-17-2008, 01:46 PM   #1
Elite Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,454
Total Cats: 80
Default About those big one day stock market rallies

Wikipedia lists the 20 biggest one day rallies:

List of largest daily changes in the Dow Jones Industrial Average - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

17 of them occurred in the worst years of Great Depression (1929-33).

2 of them (#5 and #6) happened in October, 2008.

Lesson: These one day rallies are traps. The worst is yet to come.
JasonC SBB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2008, 02:22 PM   #2
Senior Member
iTrader: (10)
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: South Eastern Wisconsin
Posts: 1,282
Total Cats: 0
Default

You know the chart on the left that you are referring to as having 10/08 as 5 and 6 are for % gains right? I thought you were talking losses.
ApexOnYou is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2008, 02:55 PM   #3
Guest
iTrader: (1)
 
ray_sir_6's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: DFW, TX
Posts: 714
Total Cats: 0
Default

He is just showing that in the worst of financial times, the stock market will have the biggest swings (both UP and down). So using the Great Depression as an example, you can see how things are probably gonna get alot worse before they get better.
ray_sir_6 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2008, 04:39 PM   #4
Elite Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,454
Total Cats: 80
Default

Yup.

Point is going long in this market is a sucker's bet.
JasonC SBB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2008, 04:50 PM   #5
Elite Member
iTrader: (11)
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Overland Park, Kansas
Posts: 5,382
Total Cats: 43
Default



Ah, Finally something we agree on.
elesjuan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2008, 08:17 PM   #6
Senior Member
iTrader: (10)
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: South Eastern Wisconsin
Posts: 1,282
Total Cats: 0
Default

Ah that makes sense.
ApexOnYou is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2008, 08:59 PM   #7
Elite Member
iTrader: (13)
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Taos, New mexico
Posts: 5,702
Total Cats: 237
Default

This man speaks truth.
Fireindc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-17-2008, 10:21 PM   #8
Elite Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,454
Total Cats: 80
Default

LOL when I post GET OUT I get flamed LOL.
Well at least now I have better evidence.

GET OUT!!!!

And short the damn market.

FTW:
SH, RWM, DOG, PSQ. Look how well they've done.
JasonC SBB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2008, 01:02 AM   #9
Elite Member
iTrader: (11)
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Overland Park, Kansas
Posts: 5,382
Total Cats: 43
Default

Isn't a massive sell off just going to cause the whole thing to completely tank though? I thought thats what happened in 1929?
elesjuan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2008, 01:24 AM   #10
Elite Member
iTrader: (21)
 
paul's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Point Pleasant, NJ
Posts: 2,957
Total Cats: 2
Default

It's a self fulfilling prophecy you dumb ****.
paul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2008, 01:32 AM   #11
Elite Member
iTrader: (11)
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Overland Park, Kansas
Posts: 5,382
Total Cats: 43
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by paul View Post
It's a self fulfilling prophecy you dumb ****.
??

Elaborate?
elesjuan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2008, 01:49 AM   #12
Boost Pope
iTrader: (8)
 
Joe Perez's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Chicago (Over two miles from Wrigley Field. Fuck the Cubs. Fuck them in their smarmy goat-hole.)
Posts: 26,317
Total Cats: 1,914
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by paul View Post
It's a self fulfilling prophecy you dumb ****.
It might be more accurate to liken it to a non-zero-sum game, such as The Prisoner's Dilemma. (Yes, I admit it, I'm a sociology geek- I love game theory.)

All else being equal, assume that there are two possible actions: sell and short, or stay long.

If everyone (including yourself) remains long, then the market remains relatively stable.

However, if some people sell and short the market, then the market will likely decline. Those who remained long will suffer.

Therefore, because it is likely that some people will sell and short, it is in your best interest also to sell and short, because even though this will cause greater harm overall, it is likely to cause less harm to you than if you were to remain long.

Is that clearish?
Joe Perez is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2008, 01:53 AM   #13
Elite Member
iTrader: (11)
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Overland Park, Kansas
Posts: 5,382
Total Cats: 43
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Perez View Post
Therefore, because it is likely that some people will sell and short, it is in your best interest also to sell and short, because even though this will cause greater harm overall, it is likely to cause less harm to you than if you were to remain long.

Is that clearish?
Yes, but question. What would really happen if nearly everybody jumped out of the market? Is the world really that dependent on it for overall success?
elesjuan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2008, 09:34 AM   #14
Tour de Franzia
iTrader: (6)
 
hustler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Republic of Dallas
Posts: 29,114
Total Cats: 351
Default

JohnTitor.txt
hustler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2008, 10:14 AM   #15
Boost Pope
iTrader: (8)
 
Joe Perez's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Chicago (Over two miles from Wrigley Field. Fuck the Cubs. Fuck them in their smarmy goat-hole.)
Posts: 26,317
Total Cats: 1,914
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by elesjuan View Post
Yes, but question. What would really happen if nearly everybody jumped out of the market? Is the world really that dependent on it for overall success?
**** it. For now, I'm out. Jason, if the market closes up 30% at the end of today, I will physically kill you.
Joe Perez is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2008, 12:13 PM   #16
Senior Member
iTrader: (14)
 
brgracer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Ambler, PA
Posts: 1,275
Total Cats: 1
Default

Jason,

#1 I'm personally getting kinda tired of these "financial" BS posts so I suggest you take your opinions to a more specific forum say like Yahoo finance or elsewhere where you can have all the fun you want.

#2 Getting tired of the comparisons to 1929 and the panic mongering. Granted, anything can happen. Hell, a presidential assassination or terrorist attack in the next few months could change anything, BUT the current fundamentals versus the depression of 1929 are so different, AND there is DATA (not people/expert opinions) to back that up. What really amazes me is that when it comes to car stuff, you are very analytical with DATA vs. opinions, but when it comes to financial stuff you often solicit the opinions of so called experts and very loose data. Take this post for example, volatility does not = downturn, in fact if you look at the data, there is volatility almost before any moves both upside and downside. And financial opinions are like political spin, you can make arguments either way, BUT there are certainly reassuring data that the economy is stabilizing a bit and as said before the market moves before the economy. As an example, some of the data I am referring to are the recent stabilization of home sales in the state of CA which is often 2-3 months ahead of the rest of the nation in terms of economic cycles AND Walmart's recent quarterly results. Hell, if Walmart posted terrible results, I certainly would be much more scared than now.

Anyway, SHORT version ----> Save your financial BS for a financial forum please. Thanks.
brgracer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-18-2008, 01:03 PM   #17
Boost Czar
iTrader: (61)
 
Braineack's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Chantilly, VA
Posts: 72,835
Total Cats: 1,786
Default

oh noes, just moved some more cash reverses into shares....
Braineack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-21-2008, 05:16 PM   #18
Elite Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,454
Total Cats: 80
Default

This rally may only last a few days. For those who rode the snake down this far, now would be a good time to get out of long positions and short the market.
JasonC SBB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-21-2008, 05:19 PM   #19
Elite Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,454
Total Cats: 80
Default

Read what Roubini says, one of the guys who was right lots of times, about this recession. He explains why this market has a long way down. The unraveling of the hedge funds:

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - The shadow banking system is unravelling
JasonC SBB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-21-2008, 08:53 PM   #20
Elite Member
Thread Starter
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 6,454
Total Cats: 80
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by brgracer View Post
Jason,

#1 I'm personally getting kinda tired of these "financial" BS posts
Don't click them. Less effort that reading or typing. In fact, ZERO effort.

Oh, and I have to point out, you said "financial BS"... and this forum's title is .... "Insert BS here" LOL.
JasonC SBB is offline   Reply With Quote
 
 
Reply

Related Topics
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Project Gemini - Turbo Civic on the Cheap Full_Tilt_Boogie Build Threads 57 07-19-2017 05:11 PM
WTB MP62 (Hotside) (NB2) Rick02R WTB 3 01-03-2016 08:18 PM
Expected intake temps on the track? tazswing Race Prep 20 10-03-2015 12:04 PM
Going back to stock. Need some 1.6 parts. Trent WTB 2 10-01-2015 01:15 PM
Leaky Wilwoods mx592 Suspension, Brakes, Drivetrain 1 10-01-2015 01:45 AM


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:20 AM.