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Old 11-21-2008, 09:01 PM   #21
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While this is the BS section, I still think you get carried away. If anything it would be nice to see more miata specific post from you more than the political stuff. This is 'miataturbo.net'. I think 90% of your post from the last few months are extremist political or about how everything's corrupt, the sky is falling, etc.
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Old 12-01-2008, 10:57 PM   #22
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After today's 7% drop, are you guys still gonna crucify me for trying to point out WHY one should get out of the market?
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Old 12-01-2008, 11:09 PM   #23
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Originally Posted by JasonC SBB View Post
After today's 7% drop, are you guys still gonna crucify me for trying to point out WHY one should get out of the market?
Figured that everyone would be standing on pins & needles waiting for an inevitably disappointing black Friday, so I bought about $40k worth of short funds. (still keeping a large cash reserve.) Finally made some money today for a change.

We'll see if this continues into a bona-fide death spiral, or if it's just going to be a hiccup. Never thought I'd be the one to say this, but burn, baby, burn.
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Old 12-02-2008, 02:38 PM   #24
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Joe, I hope you are in the single bear funds (SH, RWM) .... just hold on to them. Historically the market in these conditions do wild ups and downs with an overall down trend. If I had listened to GaryNorth when he advised to buy and hold SH late last year, and in Mid September, I'd be up 30-35% by now, instead of trying to time the market.

If you want to play with the double (200%) bears, (SKF, TWM, QID), you have to be very careful.. they shoot up, then crash down even faster. The double bears have a time value loss - they creep down when the market is flat. Only use a small portion of your portfolio, and when you go in, always have an exit strategy (e.g. trailing stop loss), and then again you have to watch it like a hawk. Very stressful given how volatile this sick market is. I barely have the stomach for it.

Having said that, the rise a couple of weeks ago from 115 was predictable, and so was the rise from last Friday's <140. If you are brave, you can short these double bears when they peak. The drop from recent exponential rise to the peak at 290 was also predictable, especially with Options Expiry Friday and where the Max Pain was - market is almost always manipulated to move towards the "max pain" point when approaching Options Expiry Friday - the amazing thing last one was that it occurred in the last 45 minutes of trading on the last day!. You can google "max pain" to see what I mean. I have a friend who does serious trading and he was the one that explained this to me. He says all serious traders know about the legend of the PPT. These 2 articles show startling evidence of said manipulation. The trick for small fry like me is to understand what they tend to do and when:

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