The Current Events, News, and Politics Thread
09-01-2020, 03:35 PM
I identify as a bear.
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One hears the term "Vegas odds" thrown around a lot. I never actually realized that sports books in Vegas were in fact giving odds on the 2020 US Presidential election.
But here they are: https://lasvegassportsbetting.com/20...ds_P14398.html
I'd love to see the same data for the 2016 election. And, for that matter, the past few decades.
But the Vegas odds do seem to mirror the broad sentiment. Unlike blogs which are usually biased to one viewpoint or another, a Vegas sports book is about as close to "objective" as you're going to find.
What this particular book shows is that from January to June, the odds were "Mostly favors Trump," with the margin being larger back before Sanders and Warren withdrew from the running.
Since early June, when the race really settled down with Biden as the presumptive nominee, it's been consistently "Mostly favors Biden."
To me, that suggests that a lot of people might have been swinging in the Trump direction, on the basis that "Trump isn't Sanders." But once a non-communist Democrat emerged as the party leader, that same sentiment swung around to "Biden isn't Trump."
So maybe I should have thought about my earlier question a different way. What I suppose I'm really wondering is whether any substantial portion of the electorate exists whose decisions are likely to be swayed by things like a debate, as opposed to a more emotional / subjective judgement of "Candidate B is slightly less bad than Candidate A, but wait, Candidate C is slightly less bad than Candidate B."
But here they are: https://lasvegassportsbetting.com/20...ds_P14398.html
I'd love to see the same data for the 2016 election. And, for that matter, the past few decades.
But the Vegas odds do seem to mirror the broad sentiment. Unlike blogs which are usually biased to one viewpoint or another, a Vegas sports book is about as close to "objective" as you're going to find.
What this particular book shows is that from January to June, the odds were "Mostly favors Trump," with the margin being larger back before Sanders and Warren withdrew from the running.
Since early June, when the race really settled down with Biden as the presumptive nominee, it's been consistently "Mostly favors Biden."
To me, that suggests that a lot of people might have been swinging in the Trump direction, on the basis that "Trump isn't Sanders." But once a non-communist Democrat emerged as the party leader, that same sentiment swung around to "Biden isn't Trump."
So maybe I should have thought about my earlier question a different way. What I suppose I'm really wondering is whether any substantial portion of the electorate exists whose decisions are likely to be swayed by things like a debate, as opposed to a more emotional / subjective judgement of "Candidate B is slightly less bad than Candidate A, but wait, Candidate C is slightly less bad than Candidate B."
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09-01-2020, 04:06 PM
Retired Mech Design Engr
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People mostly make decisions on emotion and then find facts to back up their decision. That is one of the reasons why we engineers are considered weird.
We are taught, for instance, that sunk costs should not affect today’s cost / benefit decision. Most non-engineers cannot put their feelings aside and objectively evaluate economic decisions.
DNM
We are taught, for instance, that sunk costs should not affect today’s cost / benefit decision. Most non-engineers cannot put their feelings aside and objectively evaluate economic decisions.
DNM
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09-01-2020, 05:12 PM
I identify as a bear.
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People mostly make decisions on emotion and then find facts to back up their decision. That is one of the reasons why we engineers are considered weird.
We are taught, for instance, that sunk costs should not affect today’s cost / benefit decision. Most non-engineers cannot put their feelings aside and objectively evaluate economic decisions.
We are taught, for instance, that sunk costs should not affect today’s cost / benefit decision. Most non-engineers cannot put their feelings aside and objectively evaluate economic decisions.
How would that work, I wonder? Would we have our own Prime Minister? Our own Parliament? If so, then I suspect we'd actually come out even worse in the end.
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09-01-2020, 05:43 PM
I identify as a bear.
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So, the President apparently just Tweeted his blessings to us (WGN America) on the eve of our launching of News Nation, a new cable news network whose primary mission is to be objective and free of bias.
https://www.robertfeder.com/2020/09/...nation-launch/
On the one hand, I'm vaguely annoyed by this. Granted, we've gotten shout-outs by name from Presidents before, but it's usually been stuff like Obama giving us a shout-out for the awesome Cubs stuff. Getting props from president Trump creeps me out slightly.
On the other hand, I look forward to Brainey accusing News Nation of having a political agenda.
https://www.robertfeder.com/2020/09/...nation-launch/
On the one hand, I'm vaguely annoyed by this. Granted, we've gotten shout-outs by name from Presidents before, but it's usually been stuff like Obama giving us a shout-out for the awesome Cubs stuff. Getting props from president Trump creeps me out slightly.
On the other hand, I look forward to Brainey accusing News Nation of having a political agenda.
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09-01-2020, 07:07 PM
I identify as a bear.
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One completely serious comment I will make:
Very early on in the genesis of this idea (to build News Nation), an observation was made that cable news channels have become so caught up in politics and opinions that they've forgotten about, well... actual news.
There's a lot of merit to that observation. Whether you are looking CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, or whatever else, quite a lot of what's being broadcast isn't news, it's opinion.
Now, time will tell if we're successful at this, but one of the most fundamental, underlying goals of this operation is to recognize the difference between opinion and news.
The sad part is that I am so utterly exhausted, both physically and mentally, from six months of nonstop, *****-to-the-wall engineering and construction, 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, that I'm not nearly as excited as I should be right now about the fact that in 55 minutes we are launching a brand new news network.
A friggin' network, baby. Very few engineers have the opportunity in their career to build something like this from the ground up.
All I can think about is that I can't wait for tonight to be over so that I can go home and have a beer.
Very early on in the genesis of this idea (to build News Nation), an observation was made that cable news channels have become so caught up in politics and opinions that they've forgotten about, well... actual news.
There's a lot of merit to that observation. Whether you are looking CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, or whatever else, quite a lot of what's being broadcast isn't news, it's opinion.
Now, time will tell if we're successful at this, but one of the most fundamental, underlying goals of this operation is to recognize the difference between opinion and news.
The sad part is that I am so utterly exhausted, both physically and mentally, from six months of nonstop, *****-to-the-wall engineering and construction, 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, that I'm not nearly as excited as I should be right now about the fact that in 55 minutes we are launching a brand new news network.
A friggin' network, baby. Very few engineers have the opportunity in their career to build something like this from the ground up.
All I can think about is that I can't wait for tonight to be over so that I can go home and have a beer.
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09-01-2020, 07:07 PM
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Will Congress or state lawyers get Trumps tax returns or is it all a plot to show how bad he is? Any reason he can't release them as he has promised?
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/co...m_source=share
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/co...m_source=share
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09-01-2020, 07:23 PM
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Will Congress or state lawyers get Trumps tax returns or is it all a plot to show how bad he is? Any reason he can't release them as he has promised?
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/co...m_source=share
https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/co...m_source=share
No one has any legal ability to release them except for him. Don't give ammo to your enemies, there's nothing in them that could help him.
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09-01-2020, 07:30 PM
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One completely serious comment I will make:
Very early on in the genesis of this idea (to build News Nation), an observation was made that cable news channels have become so caught up in politics and opinions that they've forgotten about, well... actual news.
There's a lot of merit to that observation. Whether you are looking CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, or whatever else, quite a lot of what's being broadcast isn't news, it's opinion.
Now, time will tell if we're successful at this, but one of the most fundamental, underlying goals of this operation is to recognize the difference between opinion and news.
The sad part is that I am so utterly exhausted, both physically and mentally, from six months of nonstop, *****-to-the-wall engineering and construction, 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, that I'm not nearly as excited as I should be right now about the fact that in 55 minutes we are launching a brand new news network.
A friggin' network, baby. Very few engineers have the opportunity in their career to build something like this from the ground up.
All I can think about is that I can't wait for tonight to be over so that I can go home and have a beer.
Very early on in the genesis of this idea (to build News Nation), an observation was made that cable news channels have become so caught up in politics and opinions that they've forgotten about, well... actual news.
There's a lot of merit to that observation. Whether you are looking CNN, MSNBC, Fox News, or whatever else, quite a lot of what's being broadcast isn't news, it's opinion.
Now, time will tell if we're successful at this, but one of the most fundamental, underlying goals of this operation is to recognize the difference between opinion and news.
The sad part is that I am so utterly exhausted, both physically and mentally, from six months of nonstop, *****-to-the-wall engineering and construction, 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, that I'm not nearly as excited as I should be right now about the fact that in 55 minutes we are launching a brand new news network.
A friggin' network, baby. Very few engineers have the opportunity in their career to build something like this from the ground up.
All I can think about is that I can't wait for tonight to be over so that I can go home and have a beer.
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09-02-2020, 08:52 AM
Boost Czar
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Mostly Peaceful Birthday Celebration!!!!
https://thepostmillennial.com/antifa...n-his-birthday
...tweeted Nick Walden Poublon, a self-described health advisor and advocate for Portland State University and a Biden-Harris supporter...
...Mike Baker, a correspondent for The New York Times, reported that an instigator must have lit off what appeared to be illegal commercial-grade fireworks on Monday night to "celebrate" Wheeler's birthday....
https://thepostmillennial.com/antifa...n-his-birthday
Antifa torches Portland mayor's apartment on his birthday
...tweeted Nick Walden Poublon, a self-described health advisor and advocate for Portland State University and a Biden-Harris supporter...
...Mike Baker, a correspondent for The New York Times, reported that an instigator must have lit off what appeared to be illegal commercial-grade fireworks on Monday night to "celebrate" Wheeler's birthday....
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