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Old 11-06-2012, 07:22 PM   #1
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Exclamation Obama wins...

... in 431 different scenarios vs Romney's 76, depending on the outcome in a few contested states.



Specifically, if he carries Ohio and Florida or North Carolina, Romney loses.
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Old 11-06-2012, 07:24 PM   #2
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As much as I'd rather run a deficit with lower taxes rather than increased spending, I don't see Romney winning.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:08 PM   #3
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Fivethirtyeight has Romney not winning until the 11th most probable electoral college split.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

We’ll se how well the vote flipping machines and deliberately screwed up process of making everybody in populated areas have to wait in line for hours to vote works for Romney.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:11 PM   #4
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There is ONE good thing about an Obama victory: A Republican Congress means gridlock.

There is ONE good thing about a Romney victory: The "liberals" will suddenly become anti-war again.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:22 PM   #5
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I have no idea what this picture is showing me.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:29 PM   #6
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Although it is still early Romney seems to be maintaining a fairly consistent 5 point lead with every vote update. That is much more than I would assume he will win by if he does indeed win.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:30 PM   #7
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I'll just be happy if we can avoid any kind of electoral crisis that leads to a new round of "we must be rid of the antiquated electoral college" arguments.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:33 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ThatGuy85 View Post
I have no idea what this picture is showing me.
It is swing state scenarios. If Obama wins Florida and Ohio it will be an early night.
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Old 11-06-2012, 08:36 PM   #9
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Quote:
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It is swing state scenarios. If Obama wins Florida and Ohio it will be an early night.
Thankfully though, they, like you, are wrong. Good night!
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:02 PM   #10
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Gary Johnson 2012!!!!
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Old 11-06-2012, 09:26 PM   #11
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Nader 2012!!!!
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:03 PM   #12
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Gary Johnson 2012!!!!
Yup. Got my vote in.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:08 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan_G View Post
Although it is still early Romney seems to be maintaining a fairly consistent 5 point lead with every vote update. That is much more than I would assume he will win by if he does indeed win.
1. The popular vote doesn't matter.
2. A lot of the early results are coming from Republican strongholds. Wait until the New York, California, and Illinois count their votes.
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Gary Johnson 2012!!!!
+1.

I'm under no illusions that he will win, I just wanted to help him get closer to 5%.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:10 PM   #14
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Virgil goode!
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:12 PM   #15
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I understand the popular vote "doesn't count", however, disregarding it entirely would be stupid.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:17 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan_G View Post
I understand the popular vote "doesn't count", however, disregarding it entirely would be stupid.
Agree to disagree. It's irrelevant data to me because Romney could have 5 billion votes in Texas and not win the election.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:30 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by Scrappy Jack View Post



Interesting road to the white house...
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:34 PM   #18
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.

Last edited by pdexta; 11-06-2012 at 10:49 PM.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:44 PM   #19
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You know what sucks, my precinct was consistently running +5 hour wait times to vote today. I went to vote this morning at 7am (before work), 3:30pm (left work early), and 7pm (just before the precincts closed). Each time the parking lot was COMPLETELY filled, any grass areas that could conceivably be used for parking were COMPLETELY filled, and there were numerous cars driving around looking for places to park. Meanwhile, 2 precincts CLOSER to my house were completely deserted, without a single person in line. This was the same story throughout Lee County FL.

Maybe this seems innocent, but Lee County FL is VERY conservative. 4 years ago McCain won Lee County FL 73.02% to Obama's 26.18%. Apparently someone down here doesn't want conservatives voting. Despite 3 attempts, I was not able to cast my vote today in any kind of a reasonable amount of time, and it seems to be the same story I'm hearing over and over again. Almost 3 hours after polls have closed there are still long lines, praise those that were willing to wait I guess. Hopefully they were enough.
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Old 11-06-2012, 10:48 PM   #20
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Ooooo the beauty of Illinois:

Despite federal probe, mental illness, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. expected to be re-elected
Despite federal probe, mental illness, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. expected to be re-elected - Chicago Sun-Times

Jesse Jackson Jr. Election Results: Illinois Congressman Coasts To Easy Re-Election
Jesse Jackson Jr. Election Results: Illinois Congressman Coasts To Easy Re-Election

with ~70% of the popular vote...this state is just as nuts as the clinically diagnosed mentally ill that they elect!!
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