POLITICO: DEMOCRATS WORRY THAT THE ECONOMY WILL BE RECOVERING GOING INTO THE ELECTION

by Kevin Ryan

There’s an eye-opening article in Politico today about a new fear developing among Democrats.

“This is my big worry,” said a former Obama White House official who is still close to the former president. Asked about the level of concern among top Democratic party officials, he said, “It’s high — high, high, high, high.”

What is it that Obama and Biden officials are so concerned about? A deadly second wave? Bankruptcies and layoffs?

No, the thing that’s keeping Democrats up at night is the fear that the economy might recover.

In a big way.

Right before the election.

“We are about to see the best economic data we’ve seen in the history of this country,” says Jason Furman, a top economist for the Obama admin.

That thought “has caused some Democrats, especially Obama alumni, around Washington to panic,” according to Politico.

Back in April, when the economy had just been shut down and unemployment was spiking, the economic carnage seemed likely to doom President Donald Trump’s chances at reelection. But now Furman and other economists are saying that the months preceding the November election could offer Trump the chance to brag — truthfully — about the most explosive monthly employment numbers and gross domestic product growth… ever.

Furman has already noticed some data that point to the kind of recovery that economists often see after a hurricane or other disaster.

The rebound “can be very very fast, because people go back to their original job, they get called back from furlough, you put the lights back on in your business. Given how many people were furloughed and how many businesses were closed you can get a big jump out of that. It will look like a V.”

Yes, it’s a rebound, but so was the famous “It’s morning again in America” rebound that propelled Ronald Reagan to one of the biggest landslide re-elections in U.S. history. Reagan’s tumultuous first term saw a severe recession followed by a sharp bounce-back. Voters credited Reagan’s economic policies for the rebound, and for feeling good for the first time years, and gave him an unprecedented 535 to 13 electoral college re-election victory over the hapless Walter Mondale.

If the CBO forecasts are correct, the third quarter this year will see the strongest quarter in U.S. history, following the weakest in Q2. The CBO projects annualized third quarter (July through September) GDP growth of 22.2%. That would be almost two times higher than the previous post-war record from 1950, and miles above the 3% growth rate that people these days associate with economic good times.

Also, interest rates will be near zero, and gas prices will be at generational lows. Unemployment, which is measured once per month, will still be bad, but will likely have improved for five straight months by the time voters go to the ballot box in November.

In fact, if the current pace continues, Furman predicts that the four jobs reports before the election could be blockbusters. “You could easily have 1 to 2 million jobs created a month in those four reports before November,” he said.

He added, “And then toward the end of October, we will get GDP growth for the third quarter, at an annualized rate, and it could be double-digit positive economic growth. So these will be the best jobs and growth numbers ever.”

According to Politico, that realization has Democrats spooked.

A former Obama White House official: “Even today when we are at over 20 million unemployed Trump gets high marks on the economy, so I can’t imagine what it looks like when things go in the other direction. I don’t think this is a challenge for the Biden campaign. This is 𝘵𝘩𝘦 challenge for the Biden campaign. If they can’t figure this out they should all just go home.”

Another progressive Democratic operative pointed out that recent polling, taken during the bottom of the crisis, shows Joe Biden is struggling to best Trump on who is more trusted to handle the economy. “Trump beats Biden on the economy even right now!” he said. “This is going to be extremely difficult no matter what. It’s existential that we figure it out.”

Problems caused by the unique recession will remain. Many employers have gone bankrupt. Others have used the pandemic to downsize. Consumption and travel will likely remain lower. Millions of people in industries like hospitality and tourism will need to find new jobs in new industries.

But that scenario will play out in the long-term, well after the election.

“The argument that we are in another Great Depression will look like it was overstated. Trump can say, ‘Two million deaths didn’t happen, Great Depression didn’t happen, we are making a lot of progress,’” Furman said.

SOURCES: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...mocrats-281470
https://www.cbo.gov/file-download/do...private/160043
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=eUmi

...But do you want to know what doesn't help matters? When undisputed expert in all the things Dr. Anthony Fauci M.D. says crap like this on news-entertainment channels like CNN.

"I want to protect myself and protect others, and also because I want to make it be a symbol for people to see that that's the kind of thing you should be doing," Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert and a member of the White House's coronavirus task force, told CNN's Jim Sciutto on "Newsroom."

Fauci said he believes that while wearing a mask is not "100% effective," it is a valuable safeguard and shows "respect for another person."Everyone has to wear a mask — even though they aren't 100% effective — because it symbolizes the essence of who are are as a member of society.

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