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ANOTHER STUDY OF ANTIBODY TEST RESULTS — THIS TIME IN MIAMI — SUGGESTS MANY MORE PEOPLE HAVE HAD COVID-19 THAN OFFICIAL TOTALS INDICATE
by Kevin Ryan

A study of antibody test results in Miami-Dade County, Florida, found that between 4.4% and 7.9% of residents may have already been infected by the coronavirus, 16 times more than official case totals.

The study produced similar results as others performed in New York and in Santa Clara County and Los Angeles County, California. Keeping in mind the potential problems with sampling and test accuracy (a good discussion of which can be found here: =AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://reason.com/2020/04/26/miami-dade-antibody-tests-suggests-covid-19-infections-exceed-confirmed-cases-by-a-factor-of-16/), the four studies are broadly consistent in their finding that the actual number of infections far exceeds the number of confirmed cases.

The reasons for the gap could include the fact that official cases mostly consist of people who were tested because they had severe symptoms, whereas it is starting to appear that the vast majority of the infected only experience minor symptoms, and most have no symptoms at all.

Indeed Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez said "more than half" of the people who tested positive for antibodies reported no symptoms consistent with COVID-19 during the previous seven to 14 days.
The major antibody studies so far:

MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, FL
Dates: April 10th to 24th
Percent positive: 4.4% to 7.9%
Comparison to official case count: 16.5 times more
Infection Fatality Rate: approximately 0.2%
“Using random sampling, weighted across the County’s 32 municipal statistical areas… [and] statistical methods that account for the limitations of the test (sensitivity and specificity), we are 95% certain that the true amount… of infections is potentially 16.5 times the number of those captured through testing sites and local hospitals alone.”

NEW YORK:
Dates: April 20th to 23rd
Percent positive: 14% statewide and 21% in New York City
Comparison to official case count: 10 times more
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.5%
“The results would also mean that the fatality rate from the virus is relatively low — about 0.5 percent, Gov. Cuomo said. ‘What does it mean? I don’t know,’ Mr. Cuomo said.”

LOS ANGELES COUNTY, CA
Dates: April 10th and 11th
Percent positive: 2.8% to 5.6%
Comparison to official case count: 28 to 55 times more
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.06% to 0.12%
“Lead investigator Neeraj Sood said ‘The estimates suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.’”

SANTA CLARA COUNTY, CA
Dates: April 3rd and 4th
Percent positive: 2.5% to 4.2%
Comparison to official case count: 50 to 80 times more
Infection Fatality Rate: 0.06% to 0.10%
“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50 and 80 times more infections in our county than… are reported by our department of public health,” Dr. Eran Bendavid, associate professor of medicine at Stanford University who led the study, said.

SOURCES:
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://abcnews.go.com/Health/antibody-research-coronavirus-widespread/story?id=70206121
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://www.miamidade.gov/releases/2020-04-24-sample-testing-results.asp
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-update.html
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://www.studyfinds.org/study-rate-of-coronavirus-infections-in-la-up-to-55-times-higher-than-confirmed-cases/
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://github.com/datadesk/california-coronavirus-data/blob/master/latimes-county-totals.csv
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county
=AT337zzM72RXQWJng9D1dZB-qXF0OkWX7zm1w4Knwg6qQkrwuw1UyZNIS-QdTyPqA4AIaShkACs_I_ptRZb5KASsvpTX8MjjzK0-KSUeS-Ttlh66ZzK5HsLhK7WxBWgbYB55XY9U_n_k8t4Jd5hStpkLZ_k1 km_R49PvWbx7VYsL4DTDwCavCFdyOQAxocvRa_EngZFwz0X3xY NlFNzNbcRyH157BZv90DZ5daHUCNe70FhGaft6RcOhtl9aMtzu svFPbpty1h4fbmdbJcGyzaRo42LLean4NzK_E805bQ]https://data.humdata.org/dataset/novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-cases